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14. IEA World Energy Outlook 2030 Forecasting the World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), three Scenarios were used in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2010: (1) New Policies Scenario is the central scenario in WEO-2010 ⇒ Assumes cautious implementation of recently announced commitments & plans, even if yet to be formally adopted. ⇒ Provides benchmark to assess achievements & limitations of recent developments in climate & energy policy. (2) Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those policies that had been formally adopted by mid-2010, equivalent to the Reference Scenario of past Outlooks. (3) The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting increase in average temperature to 2°C according to the “Climate Goal”. IEA WEO-2010 scenarios New Policies Scenario is the central scenario in WEO-2010 > assumes cautious implementation of recently announced commitments & plans, even if yet to be formally adopted > provides benchmark to assess achievements & limitations of recent developments in climate & energy policy Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those policies that had been formally adopted by mid-2010 > equivalent to the Reference Scenario of past Outlooks The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting increase in average temperature to 2OC Results for 2035 are: • In 2035, energy demand is 8% higher in the Current Policies Scenario and 11% lower in the 450 Scenario than in the New Policies Scenario. • The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix in 2035 varies markedly, from 79% in the Current Policies Scenario to 74% in the New Policies Scenario and 62% in the 450 Scenario. • Global primary energy demand grows in the New Policies Scenario by 36% between 2008 and 2035, with natural gas rising the most in absolute terms . 59PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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