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• Global oil use continues to expand on announced policies, reaching 99 mb/d by 2035, but would need to fall to little more than 80 mb/d to achieve the climate goal. • Global oil production reaches in the New Policies Scenario 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus. • Production of oil from Canadian oil sands emits more greenhouse gas than that of most conventional oils, but on a well-to-wheels basis the differences is typically only 5-15%. • Production from Canadian oil sands increases steadily from 1.3 to 4.2 mb/d, with in-situ production overtaking mined production. • OPEC output is set to expand progressively, boosting its global markets share from 41% today to 52% in 2035 and outweighing a slow long-term decline in non-OPEC countries. • Shale oil production is expected to remain small, in spite of the huge resources, due to costs and environmental constraints. • The shares of generation from non-hydro renewable sources — wind, biomass, solar, geothermal and marine — increases more than five-fold, from 3% in 2008 to 16% by 2035. • Renewable sources (including hydro) and nuclear power are projected to account for 45% of total global generation by 2035, up from 32% today. • Modern Renewable grow rapidly in all three scenarios; the use of traditional biomass declines. • The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035. • Across all scenarios, bio-fuels for transport grow more rapidly than Renewable for heat and electricity, but from a relatively low base. • Electricity from Renewable increases from 3 800 TWh to 11 200 TWh in the New Policies Scenario; it rises to 8 900 TWh in Current Policies Scenario and 14 500 TWh in 450 Scenario. • Most of the increase in renewable electricity generation between 2008 and 2035 comes from wind and hydropower, which contribute 36% and 31% of the additional demand. • On average, the cost of onshore wind power is cut by a third between 2010 and 2035; the cost of PV is cut by two-thirds. • Offshore wind power could supply as much as 4% of total electricity by 2035; prospects are particularly bright in Northern Europe. • CSP electricity can be produced at costs of $100 to $135 per MWh at good sites in North Africa and Middle East in 2035, some of the lowest in the world. • Solar power could be exported from North Africa to Europe (at transmission costs of $20 to $50 per MWh) to the benefit of both regions. • In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035. • In the 450 Scenario, transport becomes the largest source of energy-related emissions, as the power sector is largely decarbonised, especially in OECD+ countries. • For the countries surveyed, fossil fuels were subsidised at a weighted-average rate of 22%, meaning consumers paid 78% of competitive market reference prices. • A complete phase-out of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies would reduce CO2 emissions by 5.8% or 2 Gt, by 2020. • The phase out of fossil-fuel subsidies by 2020 would provide over 40% of the abatement that is needed by 2020 to move from the Current Policies Scenario to the 450 Scenario. 60PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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