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World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Unconventional oil Natural gas liquids Crude oil - fields yet to be developed or found Crude oil – currently producing fields Total crude oil Global oil production reaches in the New Policies Scenario 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus Well-to-wheels greenhouse-gas emissions of various oils Oil sands in-situ high Oil sands in-situ low Oil sands mining California heavy Nigeria US Gulf Coast Iraq Mexico Venezuela Saudi Arabia Combustion Refining Upgrading & transport Production 0 100 200 Kilogrammes of CO2-eq per barrel of crude 300 400 500 600 700 Production of oil from Canadian oil sands emits more greenhouse gas than that of most conventional oils, but on a well-t0-wheels basis the differences is typically only 5-15% Canadian oil-sands production by type in the New Policies Scenario 5 4 3 2 1 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 Production from Canadian oil sands increases steadily from 1.3 to 4.2 mb/d, with in-situ production overtaking mined production 2000 2009 2015 I n - situ Mining 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Estonia Brazil Jordan China United States Shale-oil production by country in the New Policies Scenario 2000 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Shale oil production is expected to remain small, in spite of the huge resources, due to costs & environmental constraints World primary renewable energy supply by scenario 2008 Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario Modern renewables Traditional biomass 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Mtoe Modern renewables grow rapidly in all three scenarios; the use of traditional biomass declines Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario OECD Pacific Africa India Brazil China United States European Union 0 2008 2035 100 200 300 400 500 Mtoe The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035 64 2035 2020 mb/d mb/d mb/dPDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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