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15. Summary Even future energy systems is hard to foresee, there is no doubt about the global growth of energy consumption, the necessity for more decentralised and dispersed energy sources and systems in Europe and other larger regions. This means that larger contribution of Renewables in the global and European energy mix is necessary. Renewable energy sources will have to play a central role in moving the world onto a more secure, reliable and sustainable energy path. The potential is unquestionably large, but how quickly their contribution to meeting the world’s energy needs grows hinges critically on the strength of government support to stimulate technological advances and make Renewables cost competitive with other energy sources. Government support for Renewables can, in principle, be justified by the long-term economic, energy security and environmental benefits they can bring, though it is essential that support mechanisms are cost-effective. The greatest scope for increasing the use of Renewables in absolute terms lies in the power sector. Renewables-based generation triples between 2008 and 2035 and the share of Renewables in global electricity generation increases from 19% in 2008 to almost one-third (catching up with coal). The increase comes primarily from wind and hydropower, though hydropower remains dominant over the Outlook period. Electricity produced from solar photovoltaics increases very rapidly, though its share of global generation reaches only around 2% in 2035. The share of modern Renewables in heat production in industry and buildings increases from 10% to 16%. The use of bio-fuels grows more than four-fold over the Outlook period, meeting 8% of road transport fuel demand by the end (up from 3% now). Large-scale market introduction of new technologies (i.e. wind-power, solar-power, bio-fuel production) will have an influence/impact to the environment as well to public acceptance. These facts have to be considered on the basis of “sustainability”, considering energetic, economic, environmental and social aspects. The energy system of tomorrow will be a result of technological innovation and various social, economic and environmental changes. Important limitations to expanding the use of technical potentials of renewable sources are economics as well as the geographic distribution of the resource. Price trends for coal, oil and gas are important for planning future energy systems, but are less predicable. Important is the willingness for the transition from fossil fuels to Renewables. The WORST-Case of Future Energy Systems would occur, when: Fossil energy resources will not be available for energy supply; Climate change will not allow the utilisation of fossil resources for energy production; Further market deployment of nuclear power plants will be stopped because of nuclear accidents and problems with long-term nuclear waste disposal; Nuclear Fusion could not be realised for Electricity production; The market deployment of Renewables was not fast enough to substitute fossil resources. Result: The „Fossil Energy Period“ was only a short time period for industrialisation and evolution. 69PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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