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4. The majority of wind generators in Europe are connected to the electricity grid. They are mostly three-bladed, horizontal-axis turbines mounted on tubular or lattice towers, with rated powers of 600 kW upwards, rotor diameters and tower heights from 40 metres. The largest wind turbines currently being deployed have nominal powers of 3-4 MW with rotor diameters and tower heights of 80 metres or more, but even larger ones under development have nominal powers of 4.5 MW, rotor diameters between 110 and 120 meters and tower heights of more than 100 meters. 5. European wind energy resources are unevenly distributed geographically. Good wind- sites are those where wind turbines can generate more than 3,000 full-loadequivalent hours of energy production per year; poor sites are those where they would reach less than 1,500 full-load-equivalent hours per year. In Denmark the range of generation at different sites is between 1,800 and 3,000 equivalent hours for onshore sites, with an average around 2200 - 2300. Offshore sites are expected to provide between 3,000 and 4,200 equivalent-full-load hours generation per year. 6. Next to conventional hydropower and biomass combustion, wind energy is economically the most competitive of the renewable energy sources. On a 3000 hours equivalent full load site, allowing €50/tonne for the external cost of CO2 reduction in competing fossil plants and not charging any cost for standby power plant, wind is currently (early 2004) competitive with new coal, oil and open-cycle gas turbine power plants, but not with combined-cycle gas or nuclear power plants. Clearly, for the industry to stand alone without subsidies some further cost reductions are necessary. 7. Life-cycle analyses show that modern wind generators have an energy-pay-back time of about three months - for average sites in Denmark. Since the design life-time for these wind turbines is 20 years, they will produce over their lifetime around 80 times the energy it takes to make them. The analyses also show that practically all the materials used can be recycled – there are no long-term wastes. 8. The potential for the increased use of wind energy is huge. The report, “Wind Force 12”, makes estimates of the wind energy technical potential in Europe and worldwide by calculating areas with an annual average wind speed exceeding 5 metres per second at a height of 10m. The estimated potential in Europe is about 4,800 TWh per year and worldwide some 53,000 TWh per year. The potential in Europe which is offshore but less than 30 km from land and in water depths less than 30 m is 630 TWh per year. 9. The exploitable potential is naturally rather less. Experience in Denmark and Germany suggests that it is feasible to utilize about 10% of the technical potential. Using this assumption the European Wind Energy Association sets up a scenario for deployment, in which wind turbines in Europe (EU-15) in 2020 produce 425 TWh annually - some 12% of the expected electricity consumption in Europe (EU-15) at that time. In “Wind Force 12” the EWEA suggests that wind power is capable of supplying 12% of the world’s electricity demand in 2020, even if the overall demand increases until then by two-thirds. Whether such scenarios will become commercially attractive depends on whether or not wind power can be made competitive with the cheapest alternative including cost of backup and external costs. 10. AGE agrees that supplying 10 or more of Europe’s electricity consumption from wind energy will offer major benefits but also present serious challenges. On the positive side, wind turbines will increase the indigenous provision of energy in the EU and should increase the overall security of electricity supply. The failure of one or more wind turbine would not affect the overall grid system the way the drop out of a large conventional power plant may affect it. On the other hand, there will have to be a combination of novel and effective usage of dynamic grid-management, demand-management, energy storage 89PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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