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systems and should be encouraged in the usual ways, via tax relief on R&D, measures for market deployment etc. 8. However, SWOG believes that it is unlikely that crystalline or polycrystalline silicon will turn out to be the best PV concept for bulk use. Finding a more cost-effective PV technology, which better lends itself to a high-throughput manufacturing process, is the key issue for R&D. The really widespread deployment of PV energy in the grid- connected market hinges on the development of improved materials and innovative concepts for a new generation of PV systems. These might include organic or hybrid solar cells, the improvement of thin film technology for PV materials, the further development of PV processing and automated manufacturing technologies. 9. Nevertheless, PV systems have proved to have enormous advantages over conventional energy sources such as diesel generators in remote, off-grid applications such as communications repeaters in sunny countries and in mobile specialist devices such as watches and calculators. As a consequence, they have already created a successful global industry. Total installed capacity is now over 3GW worldwide. In 2004, PV module production stood at 700 MW and the market for PVs is expanding at 20-35 per cent per year. AGE does not therefore see any need for EU-wide support for PV cells and systems aimed specifically at the off-grid market, though manufacturers will doubtless continue to improve their cells and systems and should be encouraged in the usual ways, via tax relief on R&D, support for deployment in new markets etc. 10. As sources of bulk electricity, connected to electricity grids, PVs meet most of AGE’s evaluation criteria with flying colours (see the table at the end of this annex)! Their input energy is ‘strictly’ sustainable in AGE terms; the raw materials needed for their manufacture are very widespread; they pose only modest safety risks to the workforce (during installation and cleaning) and none to the general public; they cause no noise nor greenhouse nor any other gaseous emissions when in use, though some types of cells would constitute toxic waste at the end of their lives; when used as roofs or facades for buildings they cause little visual intrusion; they cannot be significantly disrupted by any political, economic or terrorist incidents. Their drawbacks are that they cannot easily meet electricity demand at night or in more northerly, more cloudy countries of the EU; that their take up is likely to be slow if it has to be linked with replacing or refurbishing buildings – but above all that their costs are currently too high. 11. Even without electricity storage PVs have the technical potential to supply much of the daytime electricity needs of countries where the climate is usually sunny. Most of the southern member states of EU - 25 fit the bill, with a total current daytime demand of about 800 TWhr, approaching a quarter of the total EU electricity demand. Moreover, since electricity demand in domestic and commercial buildings in sunny countries tends to peak in the daytime in sunny weather, because of equipment used during the working day and air conditioning, some conventional capacity savings as well as large fuel savings can be made in this application. PVs would usually be installed on the buildings needing the energy or fairly close by, so they would also lead to fewer losses in transmission. 12. With effective energy storage PVs could potentially meet more than just the daytime demand. Conversely however, PV installations in more northerly countries without built in storage do not allow saving in conventional generating capacity, since electricity demand here is often higher in hours of darkness or during periods of bad weather when PVs work less well. To a simple first approximation therefore, a widespread economic contribution to EU electricity supply from PVs depends on achieving simple PV system costs which are low enough to compete with other energy sources on a fuel and transmission losses savings basis. This is a very tough target which PVs are still some 95PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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