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The most mature technology today is the parabolic trough system that uses thermal oil as heat transfer medium. Several 50 MWel units using thermal energy storage based on molten salt are currently planned. 4. The potential of CSP in Europe (EU-15) is estimated to be above 2000 TWh/year mainly in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece including Mediterranean islands. This potential figure has only considered unused, unprotected flat land area with no hydrographical or geomorphologic exclusion criteria with a direct radiation level above 1800 kWh/m2a. This figure is three times higher than the potential of hydropower and in the same order of magnitude than the wind energy potential (onshore and off-shore) in Europe. When including the import of solar electricity form northern Africa, the potential is considered almost infinite. 5. The present ECOSTAR evaluation estimates levelized electricity cost (LEC) of 17-18 cents/kWh for these initial systems, assuming a load demand between 9:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m. under southern European solar conditions. The other selected technology options are currently planned in significantly smaller pilot scale of up to 15 MWel. The LEC is significantly higher for these small systems ranging from 19 to 25 cents/kWh. Assuming that several of the smaller systems are built at the same site to achieve a power level of 50 MW and take benefit of a similar O&M effort than the larger plants, LEC estimates of all of the systems also range between 16 and 18 cents/kWh. The systems achieve a solar capacity factor of up to 30% under these conditions (depending on the availability of storage). 6. One significant exception is the integration of solar energy into a gas turbine/ combined cycle, which at the current status of technology can only provide a solar capacity factor of 11% and need significant fossil fuel (20% - 25%) solar share depending on load curve) but offers LEC of below 8 cents/kWh. Due to the low specific investment cost of the gas turbine/combined cycle together with a high efficiency, the system is specifically attractive for hybrid operation. 7. Based on current understanding of the issues associated with the various systems, cost reduction of 30 - 35% triggered by technical innovations appears very feasible for most of the technologies. These figures do not include effects of volume production or scaling of the power size of the plants beyond 50 MW. For parabolic trough technology a cost reduction of 14 % by larger power blocks (400 MW) and 17% by volume production effects when installing 600 MW per year was estimated. Assuming similar figures also for the other technologies, an overall cost reduction of 60 – 65% can be estimated in the next 15 years. This would lead to levelized cost of electricity in Southern Spain of around 6 cents/kWh and down to 4.5 cents/kWh in high sunshine areas. (B) Market situation and potential 8. A new window of opportunity for Solar Thermal High-temperature Technologies has opened up recently. Today‘s technology is based on parabolic troughs using thermal oil, and central receivers using molten salt or air. 9. Spain offers a revenue of up to 22 cents/kWh for the first 500 MW of installed capacity other incentive schemes are in preparation in Italy, Portugal and Greece. 10. The construction of the first plant has been started; several others are close to start construction. In Spain solar power plant installations of more that 500 MW have requested to be considered under the above mentioned tariff scheme and should be installed by 2010. 108PDF Image | Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
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