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9.6 Risk Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves New demand for baseload power is determined by a wide variety of factors including growth in overall demand for power by sector, retirement of existing generation units, operator costs, and cost of transmission access. Competitive access to the grid will always be a function of location, competitive power prices, reliability of delivered power supplies, and the ongoing demand structure of the region into which the power is delivered. Demand is generally a function of population growth, housing demand, and energy intensity of operations in both the industrial and commercial sectors of the economy. In the case of electricity demand, changes in overall demand generally reflect the ability of individuals or businesses in a particular sector to monitor and adjust activities in response to changes in delivered energy prices. Thus, applications of energysaving or energy efficiency technologies will have an immediate impact on lowering demand, and may reduce the overall slope of the demand for the future. This demand will be driven by growth in population and more reliance on electricintensive appliances, devices, computers, and, eventually, electric or hybrid vehicles. Baseload power is competitively acquired by system operators, generally in longterm contracts. As a consequence, price for delivered energy does not vary significantly over time, although the price may vary between regions. The growth in energy services reflects an increase in population and economic activity, tempered by improved efficiency of equipment and buildings. 97 However, the present coincidence of domestic petroleum reserve issues and international politics, the failure to keep up with energy infrastructure requirements, the slow rebirth of the nuclear option due to continued public resistance and nonsupportive regulatory/permitting policies, growing pressure to limit the environmental costs of coal production and utilization, and the pervasive pressure for reduction of CO2 emissions all will work against the traditional ability of technology to match demand growth. As current energy contracts expire and societal/cultural impediments affect expanded use of nuclear and coal, upward price trends for electricity should result over the near to long term. The level of risk for the project must account for all potential sources of risk: technology, scheduling, finances, politics, and exchange rate. The level of risk generally will define whether or not a project can be financed and at what rates of return. Current hydrothermal projects or future EGS projects will, in the near term, carry considerable risk as viewed in the power generation and financial community. Risk can be expressed in a variety of ways including cost of construction, construction delays, or drilling cost and/or reservoir production uncertainty. In terms of “fuel” supply (i.e., the reliable supply of produced geofluids with specified flow rates and heat content, or enthalpy), a critical variable in geothermal power delivery, risks initially are high but become very low once the resource has been identified and developed to some degree, reflecting the attraction of this as a dependable baseload resource. Table 9.1 lists the costs and risks associated with the stages of geothermal power development. The risks are qualitative assessments, based on our understanding of the facets of each of the diverse project activities.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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