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9.8.4 Supply and capacity EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Chapter 9 The supply or stock of energygenerating capacity is fixed over short periods of time, while the capacity called on or utilized may vary widely in that same period, depending on competitive energy prices, maintenance schedules, fuel prices, transportation costs, or line charges. Capital expenditures on new supply are not continuous and require, in addition to market signals, regulatory and siting approvals as well as investor interest before proceeding. The length of time for capital investment from inception to generation varies by region and jurisdiction. It can be described, generally, as shown in Table 9.2. Table 9.2 Permitting, siting, and construction relationships. Generation Type Permitting, years Construction, years Gas turbine 12 12 Renewable energy (wind, solar) 12 12 Renewable (biomass, MSW) 24 12 Renewable (geothermal) 12 23 Coal 23 23 Hydroelectric 56 610 Nuclear 410 210 These constraints suggest, in the current quasideregulated market, that obtaining surplus capacity is difficult without specific authorization by the regulator. As a result, the capital supply curve typically lags demand; and once new capacity is brought online, it can be expected to be used up to its maximum capacity factor (allowing for maintenance outages). For existing technologies, this translates to a relatively elastic supply curve matched to a timesensitive series of relatively inelastic demand curves. For baseload power, new additions to existing supplies can be added at relatively high cost in the short term. Generation and consequent fuel substitution is usually available to accomplish this (i.e., the substitution of gasfired combinedcycle plants usually reserved for load following can be brought in to satisfy baseload needs but at higher cost). This can represent a significant opportunity cost when the technology is more expensive at the margin. 913 As shown in Figure 9.3, for the installed base, the supply curve is elastic to the point where the operating capacity is fully utilized. Meeting additional demand will force new generation to come online. Where the new generation operates with baseload characteristics, it establishes a new elastic supply curve (slope b). Where the replacement is highercost loadfollowing technology, the supply curve is likely to assume normal market coefficients (slope b’).PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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