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918 A key feature of the model is that GETEM uses a subset of the input matrix to apply change factors to model components. These factors are targeted to enable a user to investigate the impacts of diverse combinations of changes – ostensibly, improvements – in the performance and unit costs of a project. The impacts are quantified as net levelized energy costs. Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves 9.9 EGS Economic Models 9.9.1 GETEM model description 9.9.2 Updated MIT EGS model The Geothermal Electric Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a macromodel that estimates levelized cost of geothermal electric power in a commercial context. This model and its documentation were prepared as required work under a subcontract from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Golden, Colo.) to Princeton Energy Resources International (Rockville, Md.). Developed for the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technology Program, GETEM is coded in an Excel spreadsheet and simulates the economics of major components of geothermal systems and commercialdevelopment projects. The model uses a matrix of about 80 userdefined input variables to assign values to technical and economic parameters of a geothermal power project. In general categories, the variables account for geothermal resource characteristics, drilling and wellfield construction, power plant technologies, and development of geothermal power projects. 9.9.3 Base case and sensitivity GETEM accounts for the gamut of factors that comprise electric power costs – not prices – commonly referred to as “busbar costs.” GETEM applies documented and expertinterpreted conditions such as reservoir performance, drilling and construction costs, energy conversion factors, and competitive financial frameworks. It uses empirical, industrybased reference data. It is a good tool for evaluating casespecific costs, technology trends, cost sensitivities, and probabilistic values of technology goals. Thus, GETEM enables DOE to quantify the effectiveness of research program elements, using measures that reflect power industry practices. “EGS Modeling for Windows” is a tool for economic analysis of geothermal systems. The software was based on work by Tester and Herzog (Tester et al., 1990; Tester and Herzog, 1991; Herzog et al., 1997) as enhanced by the MIT Energy Laboratory as part of its research into EGS systems sponsored by the Geothermal Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy and further modified by Anderson (2006) as part of the assessment. This model has been updated using the results of this study with regard to the cost of drilling, plant costs, stimulation costs, and the learningcurve analysis. Table 9.4 lists the basecase parameters used in the evaluation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for three different stages of EGS technology: initial (today’s technology), midterm, and commercially mature. The plant capital costs, the well drilling and completion costs, and the stimulation costs are based on the results of the earlier chapters on those individual topics.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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