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EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Chapter 9 Due to the uncertainty of the various rock drawdown models and the variations in rock characteristics across the United States, a drawdown parameter model (Armstead and Tester, 1987) was chosen to simulate the drawdown of the reservoir. The impedance per well is based on results from the Rosemanowes, Hijiori, and Soultz circulation tests. The debt and equity rates of return are based on the 1997 EERE Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations report (DOE, 1997). Table 9.5 shows the base case and optimized LCOE for the six sites selected in Chapter 4. The optimization was performed on the completion depth only, and the resulting electricity costs are at basecase conditions. Figures 9.5 and 9.6 illustrate the sensitivity of the levelized electricity costs to eight important reservoir, capital cost, and financial parameters in the MIT EGS model. Figure 9.6 depicts a highgrade prospect, whereas Figure 9.5 shows a lowgrade one. As one can discern from the sensitivity analysis, the cost of electricity is most sensitive to the geofluid flow rate, the drilling and completion costs, the thermal drawdown rate, as well as the economic parameters, debt/equity ratio, and the equity rate of return. The nonlinearity of the sensitivity of costs to drawdown rate is a result of the fixed plant lifetime of 30 years and the variability of the interval for reservoir rework/redrilling. Because a small fraction of the total capital cost is in the surface plant (in relation to the drilling cost), the LCOE is relatively insensitive to the surface plant costs for lowergrade resources (Figure 9.5), but the sensitivity increases for highergrade resources. Although sensitivity plots are shown here for the two extremes in geothermal gradient, the sensitivity at all six sites is shown in Appendix A.9.3. 919PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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