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924 Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves 9.10 Supply Curves and Model Results Today, geothermal power is considered baseload capacity because it is fully available yearround, 24 hours a day. A utility could use a baseload supply curve for planning purposes in one of two ways. They can determine how much renewable baseload capacity they might buy for a certain price, and they can see what they would have to pay for capacity equal to their needs. The supply of power available from current and future generating facilities is, by definition, a reflection of access to heat reserves. The heat reserves, in turn, are accessible only as drilling and fracturing techniques are improved and demonstrated to be economically competitive. The North American continent and, by definition, the United States, is underlain by a vast heat resource varying in heat and consequent power potential as a function of depth and transmissivity. The supply of energy available can be portrayed in a variety of ways, each reflecting technology and access over time. The ultimate resource is virtually infinite, but inaccessible. That is, if it were possible to drill to depths where >350°C heat stores were available, fracture the rock at that depth, and gain access to reservoirs created as a result, then all basement rock on the continent would be a source of EGS. As a practical matter, this is not likely to occur within the next 50 years, so we have arbitrarily limited the estimates of available energy by assuming aggressive, but historically proven, learning and technology application scenarios. Modeling a resource with infinite capacity requires arbitrary assumptions on the resource recovery. We can access relatively shallow resources with hydrothermal electric technologies and drilling techniques, which effectively defines current technology. Expansion and exploration into new land areas with these technologies offers the first example of a longterm supply curve, which expands to satisfy demand as a function of applying new capital with existing technology and expands the supply curve outward. As technology and drilling techniques improve, access to deeper and more productive reserves become available.16 This can be described by dividing the total resource available at depths shallower than 3 km for nearterm development and the remaining muchlarger resource at depths greater than 3 km for longterm development. Technically, it is impossible to know how large the unidentified EGS resource might be. Muffler and Guffanti (1979) and Renner et al. (1975) speculate that this unidentified hydrothermal resource could be anything from twice to five times the identified resource. An ongoing study by Petty and others (Petty and Porro, 2006) also estimates the EGS portion of the geothermal supply. The result can be illustrated by a set of supply curves that describe the available resource over time. These curves demonstrate how the available EGS resource is being utilized with incremental access to it, starting as an expansion of existing, highgrade hydrothermal resources and ending with low grade conductiondominated basement rock EGS resources at depths greater than 3 km.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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