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EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Chapter 9 The cumulative or ultimate supply of EGS available represents the resource as a function of expected and competitive advances in technology over the time horizon of approximately 50 years. Here, we assume that technology is employed in increments to satisfy increased demand for baseload power, and price is not a limiting factor. That is to say, in this scenario, technology is available as needed and only the supply of the resource matters; the result is a traditional supply curve as shown in Figure 9.7. We also assume that in this period, a conservative estimate of the available resource is accessed. This figure is limited to 2% of the total resource available and yields in excess of 70,000 GWe in the planning horizon. This type of supply curve illustrates how much power from a particular resource is available at or below a certain price. This curve suggests that access to available power is solely a function of price and effectively assumes that capacity is, thus, available for economic dispatch as needed. This type of curve, which is used by the electric power industry for longterm resource planning, is developed for a fixed point in time based on the cost of generating that power and the amount of power available at that time at that price. For emerging technologies such as concentrating solar power, integrated coal gasification, residual cellulosic biomass to ethanol, and EGS, there are no data available on how largescale commercial systems will perform, how many of these there might be, and how the price will change with time. The supply curves must be developed based on the future improvement in technology that is likely to occur, as well as the cost of constructing the plant and ancillary systems. 925 Power Available at or Below Cost in MWe Figure 9.7 Traditional form of an electricity supply curve. 0-5 Year 5-15 Year 15-25 Year 25+ Years Cost of Power in cents/kWhPDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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