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926 Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves 9.10.1 SupplyofEGSpowerontheedgesofexistinghydrothermalsystems As geothermal developers drill outward away from the best and most permeable parts of current high grade hydrothermal fields, they often encounter rock that has high temperatures at similar or deeper depths than the main field, but with lower natural permeability. It is becoming routine for geothermal developers to stimulate these lower permeability wells to increase fluid production rates up to commercial levels. Pumping large volumes of cold water at high rates over a short period, treating with acid, or injecting cold water at lower rates for a long period all are regularly used to try to improve well productivity on the edges of hydrothermal systems. However, this is most successful when the stimulated wells are in hydrologic connection with the wells in the main part of the reservoir. When the lower permeability well is not connected to the main reservoir, it and the associated high temperature rock reservoir can be treated as a separate EGS project. For instance, Well 231 at Desert Peak in Nevada is of this type and is currently part of a U.S. DOEsponsored EGS research study. It may be possible to stimulate the Desert Peak well, drill production wells around it, and create a viable EGS reservoir. In other areas, a hydrothermal resource has been identified, but it is not permeable enough to be commercial, and so is not being developed. The EGS resources in these lowpermeability hydrothermal areas and on the edges of identified hydrothermal systems could be considered “identified” EGS systems. They are likely to be developed earlier than the deeper EGS systems because they tend to be associated with high conductive gradients instead of convective temperature anomalies. Because the hydrothermal sites have been identified in USGS Circular 790 (Muffler and Guffanti, 1979) with updates by Petty et al., (1991), the associated EGS resource could be calculated by subtracting the fraction of the hydrothermal resource deemed commercial in the near term from the totals found as part of these earlier studies. It is assumed that these noncommercial resources will require stimulation to produce at commercial rates before they can be considered EGS resources. While the reserves of recoverable energy in these identified EGS resources can be assessed in the same way that a hydrothermal system is assessed – by a volumetric heat calculation – there is probably an equal or greater “unidentified” EGS resource associated with convective temperature anomalies that have not been discovered yet. Because the resourcebase estimates in our study start at a depth of 3 km, the identified and unidentified EGS resource associated with existing hydrothermal resources are not included in this calculated reserve. For this reason, the identified and unidentified EGS resource was calculated separately. Using a costing code (GETEM) (see Section 9.9.1), the forecast cost of power was calculated based on current capabilities in EGS technology with the specific temperatures and depths for each identified resource. Each of these identified EGS resources has a depth and temperature based on the data available from the hydrothermal resource associated with it, or one similar to it, if there is no associated resource. Flow rates were based on the current bestavailable flow from the longest test at the Soultz projects, which has produced the highest observed sustained production flow rates from an EGS reservoir. The available power was then ranked by cost and a cumulative amount of power plotted against the associated cost of power. The result is a forecast total supply curve shown in Figure 9.8. This supply curve assumes that technology is applied as needed, in response to competitive market signals to deliver power for dispatch in the existing system. It is simplistic in the assumption that there are no limits to transmission or available land sites beyond the restrictions of public parks, military, or existing urban facilities.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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