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50 45 40 35 30 25 2004 US$ EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Base 5yr 15yr 2050 35yr 0 5000 10000 15000 15 10 Chapter 9 25yr e Power Available at or Below Cost in MW 20000 25000 Figure 9.8 Predicted supply curves using the GETEM model for identified EGS sites associated with hydrothermal resources at depths shallower than 3 km. The base case corresponds to today’s technology and the 5, 15, 25, and 35year values correspond to the state of technology at that number of years into the future. 9.10.2 SupplyofEGSpowerfromconductiveheating 927 The GETEM code also allows the user to change cost multipliers to calculate the impact of technology improvement. To look at the future cost of power from the identified EGS resources, the research targets from drilling, conversion, and EGS research sponsored by the federal government were used as multipliers in the GETEM code. The future cost of power was also calculated based on both the learning experience expected from the longterm test upcoming at Soultz, Cooper Basin, and other EGS projects, as well as on the projected improvements from the DOE Geothermal strategic plan and the multiyear program plan. These cost multipliers were entered into the GETEM code to calculate a 5, 15, 25, and 35year cost of power. Of course, the magnitude of cost improvements in the long term are highly speculative and depend on achievements from a continuing aggressive R&D program, both in the United States and in other countries. The EGS thermal resource described in Chapter 2 is due primarily to conductiondominated effects at depths below 3 km. This resource is more evenly distributed throughout the United States than geothermal resources that are naturally correlated with hydrothermal anomalies. Starting from the heatinplace calculations described in Chapter 2, the accessible and recoverable heat were calculated and converted to electric power for each depth and average temperature. This allows us to use the GETEM costing code with the depth and temperature as input with current technology and the cost for fracturing determined for this study to produce a supply curve for the entire United States (Figure 9.9). The assumption used for the flow rate in the current supply curve is based on the flow rate Cost of Power (cents/kWh)PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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