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Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Supply Curve for EGS Power in the United States Base Cost Incremental improvements achieved during the longest flow test at the Soultz project. The fracturing cost used in the model runs is twice the average of the costs shown in Table 5.2 (Chapter 5), approximately $700,000. The other inputs for GETEM were assumed to be similar to current technology as demonstrated at the Soultz project. For the fiveyear costs, the goals of the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technology Program MYPP were used, along with the assumption that the Soultz longterm test will be successful at maintaining 50 kg/s flow for an extended time period. 9.10.3 Effectsoflearningonsupplycurves A second type of supply curve illustrates the effect of increased knowledge of the resource and applications of technology needed to recover it. The learning curve process is illustrated in Figure 9.10, showing the increased efficiency on a fieldbyfield basis (field learning) and the cumulative effect on the installed base of power systems (technology learning) capacity. Applying this learning curve to satisfy market demand assumes access to land and transmission facilities where power can be delivered to markets. For analytic purposes, we assume that this can be modeled as a dynamic but orderly increase in available supplies when the resource is competitively The supply curve shown in Figure 9.9 provides an estimate of the electric power capacity potentially available assuming a 30year project life (xaxis), at or below a cost in thirdquarter 2004 dollars shown on the yaxis. It illustrates the shift likely from small increases in baseload power contract prices. Figure 9.9 shows the dramatic influence on the price expected, given improvements in technology and more extensive field experience. 00 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Developable Power over 30 Years (GW ) 928 Figure 9.9 Supply of developable power from conductive EGS sources at depths greater than 3 km at cost of energy calculated using GETEM model for base case as shown in Table 9.4. This includes incremental improvements only from DOE Geothermal Technology Program Multiyear Plan. e Cost (cents/kWh)PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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