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Chapter 9 0.8 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves 1.2 e 1.1 1.0 0.9 MW EGSCapacity Normalized Avg. Drilling & Completion Cost 930 9.10.4 SupplycurveforEGS Figure 9.11 Drillingcost reduction curve illustrating the effects of R&Ddriven technology improvement on the initial well cost in a given well field. Base case includes a 20% contingency factor to account for nonrotating costs. The supply curve for EGS has been derived as a function of depth to resource, estimated temperature at depth, the assumed flow, and drawdown rate for the reservoir. Rock at depth must either possess fracture characteristics that allow hydraulic flow or can be fractured to allow flow of sufficient volume to provide an adequate heat source and sustain a drawdown that maintains economic conditions for a reasonable period of time. These criteria can be met in a variety of geographic areas, at different depths depending on the underlying geologic formations and structural characteristics. We have used other limiting conditions to create aggregate estimates of supply, including an estimate of the gross potential of the resource available for each temperature/depth regime, and limited to a recovery factor of 2% and a power delivery per well field complex of 50 MWe. This definition is arbitrary but convenient in terms of power generation facilities and surface heatcollection systems. Each well complex is based on a system of wells (1 injector, and 3 producers) that are arrayed to maximize access to the underground resource while minimizing the surface footprint (see Figure 9.12). Access to the resource is assumed to be completed in sequence, matching drilling experience. We assumed that more efficient techniques and growing confidence in fracturing and reservoir stimulation will allow access to continually deeper resources. Thus, the supply curves are time sensitive, with the highest nearterm resource development and access occurring in areas with the highest geothermal temperature gradient. These areas have rock temperatures that reach 300°C at depths between 3 and 5 km. The higher costs for accessing and stimulating the resource at greater depths is ultimately offset in the modeling of the supply curve by greater yields in terms of heat recovery over longer periods of time (productivity and reliability), leading to lower unit costs of electricity generation over time.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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