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EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Ground surface 9.11 Learning Curves and Supply Curves Assuming that sufficient R&D funds have supported a successful deployment of several first generation EGS plants, the stage is set for commercial development of EGS, where learning effects will influence costs. Accessing proportionally larger amounts of the EGS resource base is expected to result in greater economies of scale for delivered power. This will translate into lower average costs per well as a function not only of wells drilled per field, but wells drilled regionally as well. This learning curve concept has been assessed and applied for almost three decades in oil and gas drilling (Ikoku, 1978; Brett and Millheim, 1986) as well as across a number of energy conversion technologies (McDonald and Schrattenholzer, 2001). We have assumed a cost reduction of 5% per well through the first five wells in a complex, with 1% per well for the next five wells, and constant drilling costs beyond that point – a cost reduction realized through the decrease in “trouble” (Kravis et al., 2004) (see Figure 9.13). This sequence is likely to be repeated in new complexes with a maximum reduction in expected drilling costs of 25% overall through the life of the well complex. Because each well is Fracture zones Injection well Chapter 9 Production wells Plan view 9.10.5 EGSwellcharacteristics Elevation view Figure 9.12 Schematic of the quartet wellfield complex and expected fracture stimulation zones at intervals. 931 For development of the supply curves, we have assumed that production wells are drilled in triplets and complexes that yield approximately 50 MWe of baseload power and are arrayed in modules that optimize yield from the entire resource base as a function of depth and temperature. We have assumed fracture and stimulation of zones around the corresponding well depth that have an average radius of 500 meters and a swept area of 5,000 m2 per fracture zone. This is illustrated in Figure 9.12 for a quartet configuration. A well complex producing 50 MWe would have between 30 and 40 wells, depending on subsurface conditions.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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