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Table 9.6 Learning curve parameters. Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Variable O&M O&M O&M Exploration Well Plant Well Casing inside plant well field staff Success Cost Capital Diameter ID (in) C 0.5 0.65 0.8 1.1 0.75 0.7 12 1 C 0.5 0.35 0.2 0.1 0.25 0.3 5 2 C 1.20.003 0.002 0.004 0.004 0.060 0.0002 0.003 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Wellfield O&M Costs Exploration Success Plant Capital Cost Plant O&M 0.4 0 200StaffO&M400 600 800 1000 1200 Cumulative EGS Capacity Installed (MW ) Figure 9.14 Learning curves for various EGS LEC parameters. e 3 Fraction of Base Case Cost The learning curve for well drilling and stimulation translates into increased access to overall resource expressed as supply available at depth. The plant capital cost learning curve is based on the existing hydrothermal capacity and learning parameters from turbine technology cost improvements (MacGregor et al., 1991; Nakic ́enovic ́ et al., 1998; McDonald and Schrattenholzer, 2001). The O&M learning curves are based on economies of scale considerations and plant automation techniques. As discussed earlier, the geothermal LEC is highly sensitive to the flow rate achieved from each production well. This parameter is also highly uncertain and unproven. Circulations of greater than 20 kg/s have been accomplished in EGS reservoirs, and up to 100 kg/s is ultimately possible. We have chosen to present four different flowrate scenarios to illustrate the actual needs that must be met to warrant largescale EGS penetration into the baseload market. These four different flow learning scenarios are illustrated in Figure 9.15. 933PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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