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9.12.3 Derivingcostandsupplycurves EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Competitive Market Price Competitive Market Price EGS Break-Even Price EGS Break-Even Price 10 EGS Capacity Scenario 100000 10 EGS Capacity Scenario 100000 941 987 Chapter 9 80000 987 80000 65 Year 60000 65 Year 60000 43 (a) 40000 43 (b) 40000 Figure 9.20 Levelized breakeven COE using MIT EGS for the 100,000 MWe 50 year scenario using variable debt and equity rates (VRR) shown in Table 9.7. Flow rate per production well (in a quartet configuration – 1 injector, 3 producers) follows the 80 kg/s learning curve. Thermal drawdown is 3%/yr resulting in wellfield rework after ~ 6 years and the vertical spacing between stacked reservoirs are (a) 1 km and (b) 500m. Resulting absorbed technology deployment cost is $216 million U.S. (2004). Figure 9.21 illustrates the effect of investments in EGS research and market adoption of new technology and drilling techniques. The figures show cumulative EGS capacity at 100,000 MWe, and assume flow rate per production well in quartet configuration of 80 kg/s with vertical spacing between stacked reservoirs is 1 km. Thermal drawdown is assumed to be 3%/year and wellfield rework and restimulation occurs approximately every six years. In this scenario, variable debt and equity rates (VRR) are employed to gauge the impact on the break even price of EGS and the resultant cumulative supply additions while assuming the trend in competitive market price. The time period in which competitive prices can be achieved is estimated to be approximately 11 years after inception of significant efforts to expand research. Here the levelized energy cost (LEC), including forecast costs of redrilling and stimulation, approaches parity with market prices. When viewed through the full 50year scenario, the analysis suggests that the competitive price of EGS remains below the price for other baseload power. Continued expansion of facilities beyond that point will ultimately displace older coal and oilfired generation and forestall construction of other lesscompetitive baseload facilities including coal and nuclear power. This is apparent as cumulative additions to the supply curve extend it through the forecast period of 2050. During this period, beyond year 11, the market price of delivered EGS electricity is expected to be below competitive technologies. 2 20000 2 20000 11 Both the GETEM and MIT EGS model results suggest a favorable outcome from investments in EGS for baseload power. Figure 9.20 provides a demonstration of the impact of new applied technology and field learning. It demonstrates that as new phases of technology are developed and used in the field, the delivered cost of energy is forecast to fall below competitive baseload energy prices. 0000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Break-Even Price (c/kWh) Cumulative EGS Capacity Scenario (MW ) Break-Even Price (c/kWh) e Cumulative EGS Capacity Scenario (MWe)PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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