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Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Competitive Market Price Competitive Market Price EGS Break-Even Price EGS Break-Even Price 10 EGS Capacity Scenario 12000 10 EGS Capacity Scenario 100000 987 10000 987 80000 6 Year 8000 6 Year 60000 942 54 (a) 6000 54 3 40003 (b) 2 The result of this pricing position is positive on several levels. First, this level of competition will tend to put pressure on competitive energy sources to become more efficient, effectively driving down their costs over time. Second, the attraction of geothermal energy as a source of baseload power will be high, leading to higher use over time. Third, the demonstrated reliability and cost effectiveness will lead to greater investment opportunities with higher corresponding economic development potential as a result. Figure9.21LevelizedbreakevenCOEusingMITEGSforthe100,000MW 50yearscenariousing e 40000 2 20000 variable debt and equity rates (VRR) shown in Table 9.7. Flow rate per production well (in a quartet configuration – 1 injector, 3 producers) follows the 80 kg/s learning curve. Thermal drawdown is 3%/yr resulting in wellfield rework after ~ 6 years and the vertical spacing between stacked reservoirs is 1 km. Resulting absorbed technology deployment cost is $216 million U.S. (2004). The cost equivalency shown in Figure 9.21 is a function of the assumed market price for baseload energy, essentially a proxy for the delivered price of coal as the lowestcost alternative. Once the break even point is reached at approximately year 11, any added capacity is expected to reflect the needs for expansion of the existing baseload portfolio. A singular advantage to investing continuously in this technology is the match of new demand to supply with minimal disruption to the system and avoidance of price spikes. The estimate of costs to achieve this breakthrough is shown in Table 9.8 as approximately $216 million U.S., with most of that expenditure occurring in the early years (18) of such an effort. 2000 5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 11 0000 Break-Even Price (c/kWh) Cumulative EGS Capacity Scenario (MW ) Break-Even Price (c/kWh) e Cumulative EGS Capacity Scenario (MWe)PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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