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Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves Table 9.8 Relationship of year, output, cost and cost deficit – 80 kg/s learning curve, quartet configuration, 3% thermal drawdown, 1 km vertical reservoir spacing. Year EGS EGS COE Baseload EGS deficit Total Cost Absorbed capacity (¢/kWh) market (¢/kWh) cost (MW ) (¢/kWh) e 5 25 9.99 5.00 4.99 $229,539,800 $114,612,500 7 60 7.82 5.06 2.77 $251,051,400 $88,766,000 9 120 5.56 5.11 0.45 $152,024,900 $12,401,900 9.13 Conclusions 10 180 4.92 5.65 0.00 11 240 4.52 5.67 0.00 13 400 5.06 5.72 14 550 4.75 5.77 15 750 4.53 5.78 16 1,000 4.40 5.82 19 2,000 4.69 5.89 22 4,000 5.24 5.98 25 8,000 5.78 6.58 34 30,982 5.74 6.86 35 35,000 6.59 6.91 48 92,778 6.58 7.38 50 100,000 7.43 7.45 $215,780,400 943 The diffusion of technology scenario (100,000 MWe over 50 years) employed in this analysis is validated by Figure 9.21a and Table 9.8. Using the VRRbased MIT EGS model with the supply algorithm, we find a maximum cost differential at 35 years where EGS technology offers a premium source of energy for dispatch and has achieved sustained levels of capacity. Assuming a fiveyear lag period for permitting and construction, the point of maximum differential may occur more providently in year 40. The advantage (although, in reality, the supply of energy available is effectively infinite) lies in the fact that approximately 100,000 MWe are developed during the first phase of development. We have found a positive correlation between the development of new EGS fields and continued declines in delivered costs of energy. This finding reflects not only the economies from new techniques and access to higher value resources, but also the inevitable cost of competitive power sources. Analysis suggests that, with significant initial investment, installed capacity of EGS could reach 100,000 MWe within 50 years, with levelized energy costs at parity with market prices after 11 Total $632,616,100PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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