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944 1. 2. 3. A power transmission system is commonly referred to as a “grid.” However, for reasons of economy, the network is rarely a grid (a fully connected network) in the mathematical sense. Redundant paths and lines are provided so that power can be routed from any power plant to any load center, through a variety of routes, based on the economics of the transmission path and the cost of power. Much analysis is done by transmission companies to determine the maximum reliable capacity of each line, which, due to system stability considerations, may be less than the physical limit of the line. The revival of the FutureGen program at DOE underscores this trend. In the IEO2005 reference case, coal continues to be the dominant fuel for generation of electricity and combined heat and power (district heat). In 2025, coal is projected to fuel 38% of the world’s electricity generation, compared with a 24% share for natural gas. Coalfired capacity is expected to grow by 1.5% per year, from 987 GWe in 2002 to 1,403 GWe in 2025. Installed coalfired capacity, as a share of total world capacity, declines from 30% to 26% over the forecast. By country, the United States and China currently are the leaders in terms of installed coalfired capacity, at 311 and 204 GWe, respectively. In China, strong growth in naturalgasfired capacity is projected to push coal’s share down from 65% to 52% of total generating capacity. In the United States, coalfired power plants are expected to continue supplying most of the country’s electricity through 2025. In 2002, coalfired plants in the United States (including utilities, independent power producers, and enduse combined heat and power) accounted for 51% of all electricity generation. While the output from U.S. coalfired power plants increases in the forecast, from 1,881 billion kWh in 2002 to 2,890 billion kWh in 2025, their share of total generation decreases slightly, to 50%, as a result of a rapid increase in naturalgasfired generation. The source for declining transportation costs is not cited by the EIA. According to the EIA, U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 99 GWe in 2002 to 103 GWe in 2025, in part because of the return of the Browns Ferry reactor, scheduled for 2007. Footnotes Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves years. It is projected that the total cost, including costs for research, development, demonstration, and deployment, required to reach this level of EGS generation capacity ranges from approximately $600 $900 million with an absorbed cost of $200$350 million. In this period, we expect that the development of new EGS resources will occur at a critical time when grid stabilization with baseload power will be needed to avoid redirecting expensive natural gas facilities when they are most in demand worldwide. EGS power lacks a demonstration of its capability at the present time. As pointed out in this report, this can be accomplished with a proven application of R&D support. We expect that the cost of power potential demonstrated in this chapter warrants a comprehensive research and demonstration effort to begin moving toward the period when replacement of retiring fossil and nuclear units and new capacity growth will most affect the U.S. electrical supply. 4. 5.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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