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950 South Atlantic 170.9 (-0.6%) Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves A.9.1.1 Coalfiredgenerationinbaseload United States Total = 1,015.1 (1.0%) Coal prices have been climbing at a rate of approximately 0.5% per year (without indexing for inflation) for the past decade, although not consistently yeartoyear. Some of this increase reflects the preference for lowsulphur coal available from the Powder River Basin, which entails higher demand on an already constrained railroad capacity resulting in higher transportation costs. Also, simple supply/demand balances show steady pressure on existing sources. A lack of new transmission capacity, a limited ability to expand existing coal facilities near urban areas, and compliance with tighter environmental standards makes delivered power slightly more expensive. In addition, retirement of existing facility stock, which was largely constructed in the mid1900s and is less efficient than modern units, has contributed to the increase in overall costs. Finally, the demand for coal used in metallurgical operations (such as coking) is in competition for coal demanded for energy generation; this may be exacerbated when newer coal gasification and liquefaction facilities become more economical to construct in the future.3 Pacific New England Contiguous 8.3 (1.8%) 9.9 (-7.8%) Mountain 118.5 (1.6%) West North Central East Pacific Noncontiguous 1.4 (21.8%) 229.0 (2.1%) 67.5 (4.3%) 146.7 (-0.8%) North Central Middle Atlantic Coal plays an important and, in some regions, dominant role in baseload power delivery. Coal consumption in the United States as a share of fuels used for electricity generation is expected to increase from 52% to 53% over the forecast. In terms of installed capacity, coal’s share of the total will hold steady at 35%. Coal is used for baseload generation, which explains why it accounts for only 35% of U.S. capacity but generates more than onehalf of the country’s electricity. In Figure A.9.1, the significance of that role is graphically illustrated. Figure A.9.1 Electric powersector consumption of coal by Census region, 2004 (million short tons and percent change from 2003) (EIA, 2005). According to the EIA, to a large extent, the projections of increasing prices for natural gas after 2010 – combined with projections of relatively stable coal prices and slightly declining rates for domestic transportation of coal4 – have been the key factors helping coal compete as a fuel for U.S. power generation. Increases in coalfired generation are projected to result from both greater utilization of West South Central 152.9 (0.8%) East South Central 109.0 (2.0%)PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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