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Chapter 9 EnergySector Fundamentals: Economic Analysis, Projections, and Supply Curves existing U.S. coalfired generating capacity and an additional 89,500 MW of new coalfired capacity A.9.1.2 Nuclear steam generation A.9.1.3 Hydroelectric facilities Prices for baseload power do not generally change rapidly, due, in part, to the fact that most are controlled through longterm contracts. Given all the factors cited above, however, we expect the competitive price for baseload power bid into system operations to increase from about 45 cents/kWh to 67 cents/kWh during the next 10 years.8 Figure A.9.2 shows the price of electricity on a statebystate basis across the United States. e by 2025 (3,600 MWe of older coalfired capacity is projected to be retired). The average utilization rate of coalfired generating capacity is projected to increase from 70% in 2002 to 83% in 2025. A coal fired plant produces the lowestcost electricity when gas prices are higher than $2.80 per million (MMBtu). The price of nuclearsourced electricity has remained relatively constant during the past decade, a reflection of better management and ongoing maintenance of facilities compared to earlier periods. Spent fuel continues to be stored onsite in most facilities and could be a source of longterm price increases in the future as spent fuel becomes increasingly difficult to manage onsite. Although there are new facilities in design, no recent construction has taken place in the United States, which would augment the existing stock of nuclear facilities. The earliest, currently operating commercial nuclear facilities were constructed in 19691970, with a large fraction of the generation base constructed in the 1980s. Assuming the design life of a nuclear plant is 25 years, with regulatory extensions available to 40 years before retirement, 46 GWe of capacity can be expected to retire in the period to 2020.5 This represents about 46% of the nearly 99 GWe of current baseload power from this source. Environmental regulations, public concerns over safety, uncertainty over the storage of spent fuel, and investor concerns over financial risk combine to make expansion and replacement of this source of power problematic. Assuming 50% of the retired stock is replaced during the next 15 years, the resulting gap in baseload capacity could approach 25 GWe.6 A.9.1.4 Baseload power prices and electricity supply sources 951 Hydroelectric facilities continue to provide a critical backbone of the baseload capacity for U.S. power networks in areas served by the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) or the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). A proven technology, hydroelectric plants are dispatchable efficiently for both baseload and load firming,7 and are the core of operations for federal agencies such as BPA and WAPA, underpinning the transmission facilities built to transmit power from the large hydroelectric project areas. Increased environmental concerns over the use of water, reduced capacity due to siltation, and changes in rainfall patterns have created some uncertainty in the availability of this power source. Because no new hydroelectric facilities are planned or are likely in the next decade, this source of power should be considered static or in slight decline.PDF Image | Energy Sector Fundamentals
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