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risked volume (the so called Expectation, EXP), which is the product of the MSV and the Possibility of Success (POS). The prospect portfolio characteristics as of 1 January 2013 are presented in figure 2 for the prospects in the Territory and the Continental shelf. The number of prospects and the risked volumes are shown per MSV volume class. The total number of prospects in the portfolio has increased compared to 1 January 2012. In general the risked volumes in most MSV classes have been valued more pessimistically than on 1 January 2012, mainly due to a re- evaluation of the possibility of success of older prospects. Exploration potential The exploration potential is that part of the prospect portfolio that meets certain minimum conditions. Since the first report on the exploration potential in 1992 a cut-off was defined for the expected recoverable volume in case of discovery (MSV). This cut-off was set at 0.5 billion cubic meter for prospects in the Territory and at 2 billion cubic meters for prospects on the Continental Shelf. The green columns in figure 2 represent the risked volume of the prospects that meet this MSV cut-off. This volume is called the exploration potential based on the MSV cut-off. The estimate of the exploration potential (see Table 6) is expressed as a range, to stress the inherent highly uncertain nature. Table 6. Exploration potential for natural gas based on MSV cut-off as at 1 January 2013. MSV cut-off Exploration potential 33 Area T erritory Continental Shelf [billion Sm ] [billion Sm ] 0.5 2 62 – 155 90 – 228 The consequence of a minimum MSV based cut-off is that other factors determining the commercial attractiveness of a prospect are not considered. These factors are partly related to individual prospects (possibility of success, distance to infrastructure, type of field development, gas quality, productivity etc.) and partly on generic factors such as expenses and revenues. An alternative cut-off, for the first time presented in the annual review of 2006, is based on a positive net present value of a prospect. Per prospect the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is derived from the net present value considering the exploration risk using a discounted cash flow model. This model determines the commercial attractiveness of a prospect incorporating the factors mentioned above. As an example table 7 shows the expectation value for the exploration potential after applying an EMV cut-off (prospects with a positive EMV at a gas price scenario of 23 cents per cubic meter). Compared to the figures in table 6 the EMV > 0 cut-off results are close to the middle of the range of the exploration potential based on the MSV cut-off. This is a notable decrease as compared to January 1st 2012. The decrease is mainly caused by the application of a lower gas price expectancy and re-evaluation of older (pre-2012) prospects in the portfolio. 20PDF Image | Natural resources and geothermal energy in the Netherlands
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