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GAS SUPPLY FROM WITHIN THE NETHERLANDS This section deals with the developments in the supply of gas produced from within the Netherlands that can reasonably be expected for the next 25 years (2013 to 2037). This section of the review is based on data submitted by operators and gas boards. The reference date for the present review is 1 January 2012. All volumes in the present section are quoted in billions of m3 Groningen Gas Equivalent (heating value of 35.17 MJ/Nm3) abbreviated to m3Geq. The estimated Dutch natural gas supply is presented in figure 5, divided into production from the Groningen field (upper part of the diagram) and production from other accumulations (small fields). The figure shows both the realised Dutch natural gas production for the period 2001 – 2012 as the production estimates for the next 25 years (2013 – 2037). The estimated supply from the Groningen field has been derived from the maximum allowed production until 2020 and the expected production after that: • The maximum allowed production from the Groningen accumulation for the period 2012 – 2020 is based on the amendment to article 55 of the Gas Act. It has been limited to 425 billion m3Geq raised with the 20.7 billion m3Geq which remains from the previous period (2006 – 2011). The purpose of setting a maximum allowance is to ensure that the Groningen accumulation can continue to fulfil its function as a swing producer to for the small fields policy for a sufficiently long period of time. The function as swing producer implies that the actual annual production of the Groningen accumulation is difficult to estimate. Therefore the supply from the Groningen accumulation until and including 2020 has been profiled as the maximum allowed production as mentioned above (425 billion m3Geq + 20.7 billion m3Geq minus the production in 2012 (94.6 m3Geq) resulting in an annual production forecast of 43.9 billion m3Geq. • From 2020 onwards the production profile is derived from the Production plan of the Groningen accumulation. The estimated supply from the small fields has been prepared based on the following data: • the summation of the production profiles of the reserves. These profiles have been submitted by the operators as part of their annual reports (Mining Decree, article 113). • the summation of the contingent resources. These resources are not profiled by the operators. Therefore an arbitrary production profile is based on the assumption that this category (contingent resources/development pending) will be brought on stream within 10 years from now with a dominant part in the beginning of this time period. • the summation of the production profiles of the accumulations that have not been discovered as yet. These profiles are prepared by using a simulation model; taking into account the number of wells that is expected to be drilled (10 exploration wells per year and a risked value to investment ratio (RVIR) of 0.1), the expected producible volumes of the prospects and the probability of success. Groningen field Production limits allow an annual production of 43.9 billion m3Geq until and during 2020. After 2021, production from the Groningen field is expected to gradually decline to approximately 8 billion m3 Geq in 2037. 24PDF Image | Natural resources and geothermal energy in the Netherlands
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