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a. Prospect database Database containing all prospective structures (“prospects”) known to the Netherlands government which may potentially contain gas or oil (future reserves). Source of information to this database are the annual reports as submitted by the operating companies according to article 113 of the Mining act. b. Prospect Portfolio The selection of prospects from the Prospect database located within a “Proven Play” area. c. Exploration potential Cumulated “risked volumes” of all prospects in the prospect portfolio that meet certain selection criteria. In the series of reports on the exploration potential (published since 1992) the Prospect portfolio it was chosen to apply a threshold for the expected reserves volume per prospect. In certain reports the term “Firm Futures” has been used. This is in general synonymous to Exploration potential. d. Potential futures in proven plays Volume of gas expected to be present in not yet mapped structures in a proven play area. e. Potential futures in not yet proven plays Volume of gas expected to be present in valid. but not yet proven plays in the Netherlands. f. Potential futures in hypothetical plays Volume of gas in plays of which one or more of the basic play elements such as reservoir. seal and source rock are not yet known. The term ‘expected’ in the definitions above should be interpreted in the statistical sense of the word. The stated figure represents the expected value. The following explanation may be useful. All data that are used for the purpose of calculating volumes have an intrinsic uncertainty. By processing these uncertainties statistically, an expectation curve can be determined for each accumulation. This is a cumulative probability distribution curve, i.e. a graph in which reserve values are plotted against the associated probabilities that these values will be achieved or exceeded. As production from a hydrocarbon reservoir progresses, several uncertainties decrease and the expected value will deviate less and less from the 50% value on the cumulative probability distribution curve. In practice, the stated reserves of a given field are the expected values. This is the most realistic estimate available of the volume of hydrocarbons actually present in a reservoir. The recoverability of hydrocarbons from an accumulation is determined by the geological and reservoir characteristics of that accumulation, the recovery techniques available at the reporting date, and the economic conditions prevailing at that time. Probabilistic summation of the proven reserves: In this method, the probability distributions of the reserves of the individual fields are combined. This way, the uncertainties inherent to all reserve estimates are accounted for. The result of applying the probabilistic summation method is that the total figure obtained for the proven reserves according to the definition, now indeed represents the proven proportion of total Dutch reserves in a statistically more reliable manner. In other words, there is a 90% probability that reserves will actually exceed the value stated. 126 Annex 20PDF Image | Natural resources and geothermal energy in the Netherlands
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