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Recoverable EGS Resource Estimates Reserve estimates made by the oil and gas industry are further categorized as proven, probable, and possible. The methods for accounting for these reserves are governed by the rules of the SEC (2006). Proven reserves exist where there is a sufficient body of supporting data from geology, geophysics, well tests, and field production to estimate the extent of the oil or gas contained in the body of rock. They are deemed, “commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.” Proven reserves can be developed or undeveloped. Probable reserves are unproven reserves, but geological and engineering data suggest that they are more likely than not to be recoverable. Statistical methods are often used in the calculation of probable reserves, and the deciding criterion is usually that there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will “equal or exceed the sum of estimated proved plus probable reserves.” Probable reserves can be in areas adjoining proven or developed fields or isolated from developed fields, but with drilling and testing data that indicates they are economic with current technology. Possible reserves are unproved reserves that are less likely to be recoverable than probable reserves, based on geological and engineering data analysis. Statistically, they are defined as reserves that, if recovered, have – at most – a 10% probability of equaling or exceeding the sum of the estimated proven, probable, and possible reserves. Possible reserves have few, if any, wells drilled; and the reservoir has not been produced, or even tested. However, the reservoir displays favorable geology and geophysics, and its size is estimated by statistical analysis. Possible reserves can also be in areas with good data to indicate that oil and gas are present, but they may not be commercially developable, or the technology to develop them may not exist (but such technology improvements can reasonably be expected in the future). Although this sounds very speculative, there is such a long history of oil and gas production that these estimates are regarded with a fair degree of confidence. With regard to hydrothermal geothermal resources, some fields have been drilled and produced, so there are supporting data to make assessments of proven, probable, and possible reserves. Of course, even here there is some degree of speculation because no hydrothermal fields have been depleted of heat down to the point where they are uneconomic to produce. However, because EGS is an emerging technology that has not been produced commercially, the level of speculation and uncertainty is even higher – too high, in fact, to regard any of the EGS resource base as economic reserves at this time. EGS should to be classified as a “possible” future reserve. Obviously, there are no commercial EGS reservoirs and no past production history on which to base recovery calculations. Even hydrothermal reservoirs have not been produced to the point where the amount of heat recovered from the rock volume can be accurately calculated. Nonetheless, we have attempted, as a part of our assessment of EGS, to develop a rationale and methodology for making such an estimate. To do this, we used a combination of the experience from hydrothermal power production projects, numerical modeling, and reasonable constraints regarding how we expect the system to operate for determining what fraction of the total EGS resource might be recovered. Chapter 3 35PDF Image | Recoverable EGS
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