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many regions set for 2010, and higher blends are proposed (or already in use) in many other regions. In 2007, the US 2015 target for ethanol use was already 35 billion gallons/year; and the EU has plans to substitute 20 percent of its total primary energy sources by renewable ones in 2020. Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol production is expected to grow to 40 Mm3 by 2015. Public policies are essential to spark biofuel programs anywhere. For instance, the modern Brazilian ethanol program began in 1975 with a mandate to blend 10 percent of ethanol in all kinds of gasoline (actually, the mandatory use of ethanol and gasoline blends as automotive fuel began in 1931). The gov- ernment s obligation to buy a specified amount, at a price based on an independ- ent evaluation of production costs, in addition to the allocation of low-interest loans, fostered the construction of ethanol-producing plants. Large increases in con- version efficiency and productivity led to strong cost reductions in the following years. Therefore, when all subsidies ended (after being reduced gradually until the 1990s), ethanol production was competitive with gasoline at international prices. The perspective of cellulosic ethanol technologies may boost global produc- tion during the next decade. Actually, the present technological constraints posed by some of the raw materials (low energy density and poor energy balance) indi- cate that, by 2020, sugarcane and other cellulosic materials may become the main biomass sources for ethanol production. Cellulosic ethanol development would also contribute greatly to sugarcane ethanol production and economics, since it would make possible the efficient use of sugarcane refuse and bagasse. Sugarcane is produced in 100 countries worldwide —among them, all coun- tries in the LAC region. Sugarcane production technology is commonplace in the region, since sugar is a main product everywhere (except in Brazil, where ethanol exceeded sugar production last season). In all countries, some ethanol is produced 46 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: POTENTIAL FOR THE FUTUREPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA CARIBBEAN
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