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2006-2010 will be 19.1 percent, compared to 24.3 percent for the period 2002- 2006. The annual installed capacity is predicted to reach 21 GW in 2010, a 38 per- cent increase from the 15.2 GW installed in 2006. This implies an average annual growth rate of 8.4 percent for the global wind energy market. Such growth could be bigger, but it will be limited —at least in the near future— by the manufacturers’ pro- duction capacity. In most markets, the current delivery time for WTs is around two years. In 2006, the first encouraging developments were noticed in LAC with the new installation of 296 MW. According to some predictions, the market will take off during the period 2007-2010 with Brazil leading the way, and followed closely by Mexico. Smaller developments will also take place in some Central American countries, as well as in Argentina and Chile. Despite its large potential, LAC will remain a limited market until the end of this decade, when progress toward a more significant development will begin. Three different worldwide scenarios are outlined for the future growth of wind energy (Figure 16). The most conservative scenario —called “Reference”— is based on the projection of the 2004 World Energy Outlook report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This projection includes the growth of all re- newable sources —wind power among them— up to the year 2030. The “Mod- erate” scenario takes in consideration all policies created to support renewable energy sources, both currently under way and planned around the world. It also assumes that the goals set by many countries, either for renewable sources or wind energy, are being successfully reached. The assumption here is that the suc- cess achieved in Europe by meeting the wind energy installation goals set by the EU, will be repeated globally. The most ambitious scenario —the “Advanced” version— would follow a path similar to the one outlined in the series of reports —Wind Force 10 and 12— pro- RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 75PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA CARIBBEAN
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