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this document’s recommendations, have already been adopted and the political will necessary to carry them out is already in place. Then, the three global wind energy market scenarios are set against two alter- native pathways for the future growth of electric power demand. Most important- ly, these projections avoid the simple assumption that growing demand by con- sumers will inevitably need to be matched by supply options. Based on the assumption that power demand must be reduced if the threat of climate change is to be seriously tackled, they take in consideration an increase in energy effi- ciency. Again, the more conservative of the two global electric demand projec- tions is based on data from the IEA’s 2004 World Energy Outlook, which were extrapolated up to 2050. This is the “Reference” projection. It does not take into account any possible future policy initiatives, and assumes, for instance, that national policies about nuclear power will remain the same. The IEA’s assumption is that, “In the absence of new government policies, the world’s energy needs will raise inexorably.” Therefore, global demand would practically double its baseline —set at 13 423 TWh in 2003— to reach 25 667 TWh in 2030, and keep growing to 37 935 TWh in 2050. Then, IEA’s expecta- tions about this growing energy demand are set against the outcome of a study, developed by DLR and Ecofys (a consultant company), on the potential effect of energy efficiency savings. This describes an ambitious development path to take advantage of such energy efficiency measures. It focuses on our current best prac- tices and the technologies that will be available in the future, and assumes that there will be continuous innovation. Under the “High energy efficiency” projec- tion, input from the DLR/Ecofys models shows the effect of such efficiency savings on the global electric demand profile. Although this assumes that a wide range of technologies and initiatives have RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES 77PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA CARIBBEAN
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