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gy (i.e., excluding traditional biomass and waste) was 1,519 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe). While the average in high-income countries is 5,228 kgoe, low-income coun- tries average only 250 kgoe. Traditional biomass and waste account for 10.6 per- cent of global primary energy supply. In low-income countries, these sources average 49.4 percent of the supply, though in some countries they approach 90 percent. Energy consumption depends primarily on population growth and per capita income level. According to FAO’s estimations, world population will keep grow- ing —in spite of its progressively declining annual rates— until 2050, when it will theoretically stabilize, and then begin to decrease toward the end of the century. On the economic field, our world is experiencing an unprecedented steady peri- od of high economic growth, especially in developing countries. Presently, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are getting closer to the world’s average growth rate. According to the EIA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 Basic Scenario, and assuming that current energy policies will not shift markedly in the medium run, our world’s energy needs in 2030 will be more than 50 per- cent higher than today. In general, China and India are expected to account for 45 percent of that increase in the demand. These trends will lead to a continued raise in energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to a greater reliance of consumer countries on oil and natural gas imports —mostly from the Middle East and Russia. This scenario would heighten concerns about climate change and energy security. Regarding global climate change, the key conclusions of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, published early in 2007, were: • Warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. • Quite likely, a major part of the global average temperature rise recorded GLOSSARY 105PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA CARIBBEAN
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