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Most GHG emissions are caused by the use of fossil fuels, coal being the most hazardous one, and natural gas the less harmful to the environment. The challenge is to initiate the transition toward a more secure, lower-carbon energy system, with- out undermining our economic and social development. Nowhere will this chal- lenge be tougher, or of greater importance to the rest of the world, than in China and India. Vigorous, immediate, and collective policy actions by all governments are essential to move the world toward a more sustainable energy path. Measures to improve energy efficiency stand out as the cheapest and fastest way to curb oil demand and emission increases in the short run. Considering the aspects men- tioned above, the major threats for humankind derived from its dependence on fossil fuels are: • Reduction of the world’s oil reserves and climbing oil prices. The internation- al network called Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO; http://www.peakoil.net), set as its mission: (1) Defining and evaluating the world's endowment of oil and gas; (2) Modeling its depletion, taking due account of demand, economics, technology and politics; and (3) Raising awareness of its serious consequences for mankind. This network does annu- al calculations to establish the number of years that proven reserves could keep supplying the world at its current demand rate. As of 2007, those reserves could still supply the world for 39 years. The problem with this cal- culation is that energy demand is increasing year after year, and at high rates, making this forecast somewhat unrealistic. According to Aleklett and Campbell (2003), for every 4 barrels produced each year, only one is incor- porated to proven reserves. Price forecasts vary according to the source, but experts agree that oil prices will never be as low as they were before 2005. APPENDIX 107PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN LATIN AMERICA CARIBBEAN
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