SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK contents foreword introduction executive summary 1 climate and energy policy 44 12 14 19 scenarios for a future energy supply 54 4.1 scenario background 57 4.1.1 energy efficiency study for industry, households and services 57 4.1.2 the future for transport 57 4.1.3 fossil fuel assessment report 57 4.1.4 status and future projections for renewable heating technologies 57 4.2 main scenario assumptions 58 4.3 population development 59 4.4 economic growth 59 4.5 oil and gas price projections 60 4.6 cost of CO2 emissions 61 4.7 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) 61 4.8 cost projections for renewable energy technologies 62 4.8.1 photovoltaics (pv) 63 4.8.2 concentrating solar power (csp) 63 4.8.3 wind power 64 4.8.4 biomass 64 4.8.5 geothermal 65 4.8.6 ocean energy 65 4.8.7 hydro power 66 4.8.8 summary of renewable energy cost development 66 4.9 cost projections for renewable heating technologies 67 4.9.1 solar thermal technologies 67 4.9.2 deep geothermal applications 67 4.9.3 heat pumps 67 4.9.3 biomass applications 67 4.10 assumptions for fossil fuel phase out 68 4.10.1 oil - production decline assumptions 68 4.10.2 coal - production decline assumptions 68 4.11 review: greenpeace scenario projections of the past 69 4.11.1 the development of the global wind industry 69 4.11.2 the development of the global solar photovoltaic industry 71 4.12 how does the energy [r]evolution scenario compare to other scenarios 73 key results of energy [r]evolution scenario 74 global scenario 75 oecd north america 88 latin america 98 oecd europe 108 africa 118 middle east 128 eastern europe/eurasia 138 india 148 non oecd asia 158 china 168 oecd asia oceania 178 1.1 the UNFCCC and the kyoto protocol 20 1.2 international energy policy 20 1.3 renewable energy targets 1.4 policy changes in the energy sector 21 1.4.1 the most effective way to implement the energy [r]evolution: feed-in laws 21 1.4.2 bankable renewable energy support schemes 23 1.5 ftsm: special feed in law proposal for developing countries 24 1.5.1 the feed-in tariff support mechanicsm 24 2 the energy [r]evolution concept 26 2.1 key principles 27 2.2 the “3 step implementation” 28 2.3 the new electricity grid 32 2.3.1 hybrid systems 33 2.3.2 smart grids 34 2.3.3 the super grid 36 2.3.4 baseload blocks progress 36 2.4 case study: a year after the german nuclear phase out 39 2.4.1 target and method 39 2.4.2 carbon dioxide emissions trends 39 2.4.3 shortfall from first round of closures 39 2.4.4 the renewable energy sector in germany 39 2.5 case study: providing smart energy to Bihar from the “bottom-up” 42 2.5.1 methodology 42 2.5.2 implementation 44 2.5.3 lessons from the study 44 2.6 greenpeace proposal to support a renewable energy cluster 45 2.6.1 a rural feed-in tariff for bihar 46 2.7 energy [r]evolution cluster jobs 46 3 implementing the energy [r]evolution 48 3.1 renewable energy project planning basics 50 3.2 renewable energy financing basics 50 3.2.1 overcoming barriers to finance and investment for renewable energy 52 3.2.2 how to overcome investment barriers for renewable energy 53 5 6

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