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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK introduction “FOR THE SAKE OF A SOUND ENVIRONMENT, POLITICAL STABILITY AND THRIVING ECONOMIES, NOW IS THE TIME TO COMMIT TO A TRULY SECURE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE.” image DUST IS SEEN BLOWING ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN AFRICA FROM ANGOLA TO SOUTH AFRICA. The world’s energy system has bestowed great benefits on society, but it has also come with high price tag: climate change, which is occurring due to a build of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by human activity; military and economic conflict due to uneven distribution of fossil resources; and millions of premature deaths and illness due to the air and water pollution inherent in fossil fuel production and consumption. The largest proportion of global fossil fuel use is to generate power, for heating and lighting, and for transport. Business-as-usual growth of fossil-fuels is fundamentally unsustainable. Climate change threatens all continents, coastal cities, food production and ecosystems. It will mean more natural disasters such as fire and floods, disruption of agriculture and damage to property as sea levels rise. The pursuit of energy security, while remaining dependent on fossil fuel will lead to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme climate impacts. Rising demand and rising prices drives the fossil fuel industry towards unconventional sources such as tar sands, shale gas and super-coal mines which destroy ecosystems and put water supplies in danger.The inherent volatility of fossil fuel prices puts more strain on an already stressed global economy. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global mean temperatures are expected to increase over the next hundred years by up to 6.4° C if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.This is much faster than anything experienced in human history. As average temperature increases approach 2°C or more, damage to ecosystems and disruption to the climate system increases dramatically, threatening millions of people with increased risk of hunger, disease, flooding and water shortage. A certain amount of climate change is now “locked in”, based on the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases already emitted into the atmosphere since industrialisation began. No one knows how much warming is “safe” for life on the planet. However, what we know is that the effects of climate change are already being felt by populations and ecosystems. We can already see melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost, dying coral reefs, rising sea levels, changing ecosystems and fatal heat waves that are made more severe by a changed climate. Japan’s major nuclear accident at Fukushima in March 2011 following a tsunami came 25 years after the disastrous explosion in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in former Soviet Union, showing that nuclear energy is an inherently unsafe source of power.The Fukushima disaster triggered a surge in global renewable energy and energy efficiency deals. At the same time, the poor state of the global economy has resulted in decreasing carbon prices, some governments reducing support for renewables, and a stagnation of overall investment, particularly in the OECD. 12 © SEAWIFS PROJECT, NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER, AND ORBIMAGEPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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