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Rising oil demand is putting pressure on supply causing prices to rise which make possible increased exploration for “marginal and unconventional” oil resources, such as regions of the Arctic newly accessible due to retreating polar ice, and the environmentally destructive tar sands project in Canada. For almost a decade it looked as if nothing could halt the growth of the renewable industries and their markets.The only way was up. However the economic crisis in 2008/2009 and its continuing aftermath slowed growth and dampened demand. While the renewable industry is slowly recovering, increased competition, particularly in the solar PV and wind markets has driven down prices and shaved margins to the point where most manufacturers are struggling to survive.This is good news for the consumer, however, as the prices for solar PV fell more than 60% between 2010 and 2012, and wind turbine prices have also decreased substantially.This means that renewables are directly competitive with heavily subsidized conventional generation in an increasing number of markets, but for the industry to meet its full potential governments need to act to reduce the 600 billion USD/annum in subsidies to fossil fuels, and move ahead with pricing CO2 emissions and other external costs of conventional generation. As renewables play an increasing role in the energy system, one can no longer speak of ‘integration’ of renewables’ but ‘transformation’, moving away from the reliance on a few large power plants, or single fuels to a flexible system based on a wide variety of renewable sources of supply, some of which are variable. Investments in new infrastructure, smarter grids, better storage technologies and a new energy policy which takes all these new technologies into account are required. the new energy [r]evolution The IPCC’s Special Report on Renewable Energy and Climate Change (SRREN) chose the last Energy [R]evolution edition (published in 2010) as one of the four benchmark scenarios for climate mitigation energy scenarios.The Energy [R]evolution was the most ambitious, combining an uptake of renewable energy and rigorous energy efficiency measures to put forward the highest renewable energy share by 2050, although some other scenarios actually had higher total quantities of renewables. Following the publication of the SRREN in May 2011 in Abu Dhabi, the Energy [R]evolution has been widely quoted in the scientific literature. The Energy [R]evolution 2012 takes into account the significant changes in the global energy sector debate over the past two years. In Japan, the Fukushima Nuclear disaster following the devastating tsunami triggered a faster phase-out of nuclear power in Germany, and raised the level of debate in many countries.The Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 highlighted the damage that can be done to eco-systems and livelihoods, while oil companies started new oil exploration in ever-more sensitive environments such as the Arctic Circle.The Energy [R]evolution oil pathway is based on a detailed analysis of the global conventional oil resources, the current infrastructure of those industries, the estimated production capacities of existing oil wells in the light of projected production decline rates and the investment plans known by end 2011.To end our addiction to oil, financial resources must flow from 2012 onwards to developing new and larger markets for renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency to avoid “locking in” new fossil fuel infrastructure. image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN WIND FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADY HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS. Rapid cost reductions in the renewable energy sector have made it possible to increase their share in power generation, heating and cooling and the transport sector faster than in previous editions. For the first time, this report takes a closer look at required investment costs for renewable heating technologies.The employment calculation has been expanded to the heating sector as well and the overall methodology of the employment calculation has been improved. For the urgently needed access to energy for the almost 2 billion people who lack it at present, we have developed a new “bottom up” electrification concept in the North Indian state of Bihar (see chapter 2). New technology coupled with innovative finance may result in a new wave of rural electrification programs implemented by local people. A power plant market analysis of the past 40 years has been added to further develop the replacement strategy for old power plants. While the solar photovoltaic and wind installation have been increased, the use of bio-energy has been reduced due to environmental concerns (see page 212). Concentrated solar power stations and offshore wind remain cornerstones of the Energy [R]evolution, while we are aware that both technologies experience increasing difficulty raising finance than some other renewable technologies.Therefore we urge governments to introduce the required policy frameworks to lower the risks for investors. New storage technologies need to move from R&D to market implementation; again this requires long term policy decisions. Without those new storage technologies, e.g. methane produced from renewables (see chapter 9), a transition towards more efficient electric mobility will be more difficult. Last but not least, the automobile industry needs to move towards smaller and lighter vehicles to bring down the energy demand and introduce new technologies. We urge car manufactures to finally move forward and repeat the huge successes of the renewable energy industry. This fourth edition of the Energy [R]evolution shows that with only 1% of global GDP invested in renewable energy by 2050, 12 million jobs would be created in the renewable sector alone; and the fuel costs savings would cover the additional investment two times over. To conclude, there are no real technical or economic barriers to implementing the Energy [R]evolution. It is the lack of political will that is to blame for the slow progress to date. Josche Muth PRESIDENT EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY COUNCIL (EREC) Sven Teske CLIMATE & ENERGY UNIT GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL JUNE 2012 Steve Sawyer SECRETARY GENERAL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL (GWEC) 13 © GP/XUAN CANXIONGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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