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• Development of global industry energy demand:The energy demand in the industry sector will grow in both scenarios. While the economic growth rates in the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are identical, the growth of the overall energy demand is different due to a faster increase of the energy intensity in the alternative case. Decoupling economic growth with the energy demand is key to reach a sustainable energy supply by 2050, the Energy [R]evolution scenario saves 40% less energy per $ GDP than the Reference case. • Electricity generation: A dynamically growing renewable energy market compensates for phasing out nuclear energy and fewer fossil fuel-fired power plants. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced worldwide will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and geothermal energy – will contribute 60% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 37% already by 2020 and 61% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach almost 7,400 GW in 2030 and 15,100 GW by 2050. • Future costs of electricity generation: Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario the costs of electricity generation increase slightly compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be on average less than 0.6 $cent/kWh up to 2020. However, if fossil fuel prices go any higher than the model assumes, this gap will decrease. Electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2025 and by 2050, costs will be significantly lower: about 8 $cents/kWh – or 45% below those in the Reference version • The future electricity bill: Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, results in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 2,364 billion per year to more than $ 8,830 billion in 2050.The Energy [R]evolution scenario helps to stabilise energy costs, increasing energy efficiency and shifting to renewable energy supply means long term costs for electricity supply are 22% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario (including estimated costs for efficiency measures). • Future investment in power generation: The overall global level of investment required in new power plants up to 2020 will be in the region of $ 11.5 trillion in the Reference case and $ 20.1 trillion in the Energy [R]evolution.The need to replace the ageing fleet of power plants in OECD countries and to install new power plants in developing countries will be the major investment drivers. Depending on the local resources, renewable energy resources (for example wind in a high wind area) can produce electricity at the same cost levels as coal or gas power plants. Solar photovoltaic already reach ‘grid parity’ in many industrialised countries. For the Energy [R]evolution scenario until 2050 to become reality would require about $ 50,400 billion in investment in the power sector (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants). Under the Reference scenario, total investment would image THOUSANDS OF FISH DIE AT THE DRY RIVER BED OF MANAQUIRI LAKE, 150 KILOMETERS FROM AMAZONAS STATE CAPITOL MANAUS, BRAZIL. be split 48% to 52% between conventional power plants and renewable energy plus cogeneration (CHP) up to 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario 95% of global investment would be in renewables and cogeneration. Up to 2030, the power sector investment that does go to fossil fuels would be focused mainly on cogeneration plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario from today to 2050 would be $ 1,260 billion, compared to $ 555 billion in the Reference case. • Fuel costs savings: Because renewable energy, except biomass, has no fuel costs, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 52,800 billion up to 2050, or $ 1320 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover more than two times the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. • Heating supply: Renewables currently provide 25% of the global energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide more than 50% of the world’s total heat demand in 2030 and more than 90% in 2050. Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current demand for heat supply by 10 %, and still support improving living standards of a growing population. • Future investments in the heat sector: The heat sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. In particular enormous increases in installations are required to realise the potential of the not yet common solar and geothermal technologies and heat pumps. Installed capacity needs to increase by a factor of 60 for solar thermal and by a factor of over 3,000 for geothermal and heat pumps. Because the level of technological complexity in this sector is extremely variable, the Energy [R]evolution scenario can only be roughly calculated, to require around $ 27 trillion investment in renewable heating technologies up to 2050.This includes investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plant and is approximately $ 670 billion per year. 17 © GP/ALBERTO CESAR ARAUJOPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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