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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK • Future employment in the energy sector: The Energy [R]evolution scenario results in more global energy sector jobs at every stage of the projection. There are 23.3 million energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution in 2015, and 18.7 million in the Reference scenario. In 2020, there are 22.6 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and 17.8 million in the Reference scenario. In 2030, there are 18.3 million jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and 15.7 million in the Reference scenario. There is a decline in overall job numbers under both scenarios between 2010 and 2030. Jobs in the coal sector decline significantly in both scenarios, leading to a drop of 6.8 million energy jobs in the Reference scenario by 2030. Strong growth in the renewable sector leads to an increase of 4% in total energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario by 2015. Job numbers fall after 2020, so jobs in the Energy [R]evolution are 19% below 2010 levels at 2030. However, this is 2.5 million more jobs than in the Reference scenario. Renewable energy accounts for 65% of energy jobs by 2030, with the majority spread over wind, solar PV, solar heating, and biomass. • Global transport: In the transport sector it is assumed that, energy consumption will continue to increase under the Energy [R]evolution scenario up to 2020 due to fast growing demand for services. After that it falls back to the level of the current demand by 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, transport energy demand is reduced overall by 60% or about 90,000 PJ/a by 2050. Energy demand for transport under the Energy [R]evolution scenario will therefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by only 26% to about 60,500 PJ/a. Significant savings are made from a shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains – together with reducing vehicle kilometres travelled per year. In 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 44%. • Primary energy consumption: Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario the overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 40% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario. In this projection almost the entire global electricity supply, including the majority of the energy used in buildings and industry, would come from renewable energy sources. The transport sector, in particular aviation and shipping, would be the last sector to become fossil fuel free. • Development of CO2 emissions: Worldwide CO2 emissions in the Reference case will increase by 62% while under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 27,925 million tons in 2009 to 3,076 million t in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.1 tonne CO2 to 2.4 tonne CO2 in 2030 and 0.3 tonne CO2 in 2050. Even with a phase out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long term, efficiency gains and greater use of renewable electricity for vehicles will also reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 33% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be the main source of emissions ahead of the industry and power generation. By 2050 the Global Energy related CO2 emissions are 85% under 1990 levels. policy changes To make the Energy [R]evolution real and to avoid dangerous climate change, Greenpeace, GWEC and EREC demand that the following policies and actions are implemented in the energy sector: 1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. 2. Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs of energy production through ‘cap and trade’ emissions trading. 3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles. 4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and combined heat and power generation. 5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access to the grid for renewable power generators. 6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, for example by feed-in tariff programmes. 7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide more environmental product information. 8. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy and energy efficiency. 18PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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