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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2 2.2 the “3 step implementation” In 2009, renewable energy sources accounted for 13% of the world’s primary energy demand. Biomass, which is mostly used for heating, was the main renewable energy source. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation was 18%. About 81% of primary energy supply today still comes from fossil fuels.17 Now is the time to make substantial structural changes in the energy and power sector within the next decade. Many power plants in industrialised countries, such as the USA, Japan and the European Union, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating power plants are over 20 years old. At the same time developing countries, such as China, India, South Africa and Brazil, are looking to satisfy the growing energy demand created by their expanding economies. Within this decade, the power sector will decide how new electricity demand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuels or by the efficient use of renewable energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario puts forwards a policy and technical model for renewable energy and cogeneration combined with energy efficiency to meet the world’s needs. Both renewable energy and cogeneration on a large scale and through decentralised, smaller units – have to grow faster than overall global energy demand. Both approaches must replace old generating technologies and deliver the additional energy required in the developing world. A transition phase is required to build up the necessary infrastructure because it is not possible to switch directly from a large scale fossil and nuclear fuel based energy system to a full renewable energy supply. Whilst remaining firmly committed to the promotion of renewable sources of energy, we appreciate that conventional natural gas, used in appropriately scaled cogeneration plants, is valuable as a transition fuel, and can also drive cost- effective decentralisation of the energy infrastructure. With warmer summers, tri-generation which incorporates heat-fired absorption chillers to deliver cooling capacity in addition to heat and power, will become a valuable means of achieving emissions reductions. The Energy [R]evolution envisages a development pathway which turns the present energy supply structure into a sustainable system. There are three main stages to this. Step 1: energy efficiency and equity The Energy [R]evolution makes an ambitious exploitation of the potential for energy efficiency. It focuses on current best practice and technologies that will become available in the future, assuming continuous innovation.The energy savings are fairly equally distributed over the three sectors – industry, transport and domestic/business. Intelligent use, not abstinence, is the basic philosophy. The most important energy saving options are improved heat insulation and building design, super efficient electrical machines and drives, replacement of old style electrical heating systems by renewable heat production (such as solar collectors) and a reduction in energy consumption by vehicles used for goods and passenger traffic. Industrialised countries currently use energy in the most inefficient way and can reduce their consumption drastically without the loss of either housing comfort or information and entertainment electronics.The Energy [R]evolution scenario depends on energy saved in OECD countries to meet the increasing power requirements in developing countries.The ultimate goal is stabilisation of global energy consumption within the next two decades. At the same time the aim is to create ‘energy equity’ – shifting towards a fairer worldwide distribution of efficiently-used supply. A dramatic reduction in primary energy demand compared to the Reference scenario – but with the same GDP and population development – is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy supply system, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. figure 2.1: centralised generation systems waste more than two thirds of their original energy input 61.5 units LOST THROUGH INEFFICIENT GENERATION AND HEAT WASTAGE 100 units >> ENERGY WITHIN FOSSIL FUEL 3.5 units LOST THROUGH TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION 13 units WASTED THROUGH INEFFICIENT END USE 35 units >> 22 units OF ENERGY SUPPLIED OF ENERGY ACTUALLY UTILISED reference 17 ‘IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011, PARIS NOVEMBER 2011. 28 38.5 units >> OF ENERGY FED TO NATIONAL GRID the energy [r]evolution concept | KEY PRINCIPLES © DREAMSTIME © DREAMSTIMEPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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