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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2 Renewable heating In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewable energy will increase significantly. Growth rates are expected to be similar to those of the renewable electricity sector. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal. By 2050, renewable energy technologies will satisfy the major part of heating and cooling demand. Transport Before new technologies including hybrid and electric cars can seriously enter the transport sector, the other electricity users need to make large efficiency gains. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass and only for heavy duty vehicles, ships and aviation. In contrast to previous versions of Energy [R]evolution scenarios, biofuels are entirely banned now for the use in private cars.18 Electric vehicles will therefore play an even more important role in improving energy efficiency in transport and substituting for fossil fuels. Overall, to achieve an economically attractive growth of renewable energy sources, requires a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies. Such a mobilisation depends on the resource availability, cost reduction potential and technological maturity. And alongside technology driven table 2.1: power plant value chain solutions, lifestyle changes - like simply driving less and using more public transport – have a huge potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. New business model The Energy [R]evolution scenario will also result in a dramatic change in the business model of energy companies, utilities, fuel suppliers and the manufacturers of energy technologies. Decentralised energy generation and large solar or offshore wind arrays which operate in remote areas, without the need for any fuel, will have a profound impact on the way utilities operate in 2020 and beyond. Today’s power supply value chain is broken down into clearly defined players but a global renewable power supply will inevitably change this division of roles and responsibilities.The following table provides an overview of how the value chain would change in a revolutionised energy mix. The current model is a relatively small number of large power plants that are owned and operated by utilities or their subsidiaries, generating electricity for the population. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, around 60 to 70% of electricity will be made by small but numerous decentralised power plants. Ownership will shift towards more private investors, the manufacturer of renewable energy technologies and EPC TASK & MARKET PLAYER CURRENT SITUATION POWER MARKET Market player Power plant engineering companies Utilities Mining companies Grid operator 2020 AND BEYOND POWER MARKET Market player Renewable power plant engineering companies Private & public investors Grid operator reference 18 SEE CHAPTER 11. PROJECT MANUFACTURE OF DEVELOPMENT GEN. EQUIPMENT INSTALLATION OWNER OF THE POWER PLANT OPERATION & MAINTENANCE FUEL SUPPLY A few large multinational oil, gas and coal mining companies dominate: today approx 75-80% of power plants need fuel supply. By 2050 almost all power generation technologies - accept biomass - will operate without the need of fuel supply. TRANSMISSION TO THE CUSTOMER Grid operation will move towards state controlled grid companies or communities due to liberalisation. Coal, gas and nuclear power stations are larger than renewables. Average number of power plants needed per 1 GW installed only 1 or 2 projects. Relatively view power plants owned and sometimes operated by utilities. Renewable power plants are small in capacity, the amount of projects for project development, manufacturers and installation companies per installed 1 GW is bigger by an order of magnitude. In the case of PV it could be up to 500 projects, for onshore wind still 25 to 50 projects. Many projects will be owned by private households or investment banks in the case of larger projects. Grid operation will move towards state controlled grid companies or communities due to liberalisation. 30 the energy [r]evolution concept | THE “3 STEP IMPLEMENTATION”PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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