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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK In all sectors, the latest market development projections of the renewable energy industry46 have been taken into account (See Table 4.1 “Assumed average growth rates and annual market volumes by renewable technology”). In developing countries in particular, a shorter operational lifetime for coal power plants, of 4 upto20insteadof35years,hasbeenassumedinordertoallow a faster uptake of renewable energy.This is particularly the case of China, as around 90% of new global coal power plants built between 2005 and 2011 have been in China (see Chapter 7).The fast introduction of electric vehicles, combined with the implementation of smart grids and faster expansion of transmission grids (accelerated by about 10 years compared to previous scenarios) allows a higher share of fluctuating renewable power generation (photovoltaic and wind) to be employed. In this scenario, renewable energy would pass 30% of the global energy supply just after 2020. The global quantities of biomass power generators and large hydro power remain limited in the new Energy [R]evolution scenarios, for reasons of ecological sustainability. These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; they simply describe and compare two potential consistent development pathways out of the broad range of possible ‘futures’. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios are designed to indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve their ambitious objectives and to illustrate the options we have at hand to change our energy supply system into one that is truly sustainable. table 4.1: assumed average growth rates and annual market volumes by renewable technology RE REF 2020 28,490 2030 35,461 2050 48,316 Solar PV 2020 PV 2030 PV 2050 CSP 2020 CSP 2030 CSP 2050 Wind On + Offshore 2020 On + Offshore 2030 On + Offshore 2050 Geothermal (for power generation) 2020 2030 2050 Bioenergy (for power generation) 2020 2030 2050 Ocean 2020 2030 2050 Hydro 2020 2030 2050 E[R] REF 24,028 33,041 46,573 E[R] 48% 13% 12% 55% 21% 15% 26% 10% 8% 21% 14% 13% 21% 6% 7% 73% 17% 16% 2% 1% 1% ENERGY PARAMETER GENERATION (TWh/a) ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%/a) ANNUAL MARKET VOLUME (GW/a) REF E[R] 8 54 21 162 43 223 0 8 1 44 4 69 31 107 67 274 53 257 1 5 2 18 2 26 7 14 16 26 11 17 0 5 0 16 1 29 26 25 139 130 77 65 158 878 22% 341 2,634 9% 696 7,290 8% 35 466 16% 81 2,672 10% 269 9,348 14% 1,127 2,989 13% 1,710 6,971 5% 2,841 13,767 6% 118 400 6% 172 1,301 4% 301 3,765 6% 574 932 15% 937 1,521 6% 1,629 2,691 6% 2 139 8% 13 560 24% 56 2,053 17% 4,223 4,192 3% 4,834 4,542 2% 5,887 5,009 2% 56 reference 46 SEE EREC (‘RE-THINKING 2050’), GWEC, EPIA ET AL. scenarios for a future energy supply | SCENARIO BACKGROUNDPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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