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4.1 scenario background The scenarios in this report were jointly commissioned by Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council from the Systems Analysis group of the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The supply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolution studies.47 The new energy demand projections were developed from Utrecht University, Netherlands, based on a new analysis of the future potential for energy efficiency measures in 2012.The biomass potential calculated for previous editions, judged according to Greenpeace sustainability criteria, has been developed by the German Biomass Research Centre in 2009 and has been further reduced for precautionary principles.The future development pathway for car technologies is based on a special report produced in 2012 by the Institute of Vehicle Concepts, DLR for Greenpeace International.These studies are described briefly below. 4.1.1 energy efficiency study for industry, households and services The demand study by Utrecht University aimed to develop a low energy demand scenario for the period 2009 to 2050 covering the world regions as defined in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook report series. Calculations were made for each decade from 2009 onwards. Energy demand was split up into electricity and fuels and their consumption was considered in industry and for ‘other’ consumers, including households, agriculture and services. Under the low energy demand scenario, worldwide final energy demand in industry and other sectors is 31% lower in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario, resulting in a final energy demand of 256 EJ (ExaJoules).The energy savings are fairly equally distributed over the two main sectors.The most important energy saving options would be efficient production and combustion processes and improved heat insulation and building design. Chapter 10 provides more details about this study. The demand projections for the Reference scenario have been updated on the basis of the Current Policies scenario from IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011. image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THE BLAZING REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIG DEEPWATER HORIZON APRIL 21, 2010. MULTIPLE COAST GUARD HELICOPTERS, PLANES AND CUTTERS RESPONDED TO RESCUE THE DEEPWATER HORIZON’S 126 PERSON CREW. 4.1.2 the future for transport The DLR Institute of Vehicle Concepts in Stuttgart, Germany has developed a global scenario for all transport modes covering ten world regions. The aim was to produce a demanding but feasible scenario to lower global CO2 emissions from transport in keeping with the overall objectives of this report.The approach takes into account a vast range of technical measures to reduce the energy consumption of vehicles, but also considers the dramatic increase in vehicle ownership and annual mileage taking place in developing countries.The major parameters are vehicle technology, alternative fuels, changes in sales of different vehicle sizes of light duty vehicles (called the segment split) and changes in tonne-kilometres and vehicle-kilometres travelled (described as modal split).The Reference scenario for the transport sector is also based on the fuel consumption path of the Current Policies scenario from WEO 2011. By combining ambitious efforts towards higher efficiency in vehicle technologies, a major switch to grid-connected electric vehicles (especially LDVs) and incentives for vehicle users to save carbon dioxide the study finds that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions from ‘well-to-wheel’ in the transport sector in 2050 by roughly 77%48 compared to 1990 and 81% compared to 2009. By 2050, in this scenario, 25% of the final energy used in transport will still come from fossil sources, mainly gasoline, kerosene and diesel. Renewable electricity will cover 41%, biofuels 11% and hydrogen 20%.Total energy consumption will be reduced by 26% in 2050 compared to 2009 even though there are enormous increases in fuel use in some regions of the world.The peak in global CO2 emissions from transport occurs between 2015 and 2020. From 2012 onwards, new legislation in the US and Europe will contribute to breaking the upwards trend. From 2020, the effect of introducing grid-connected electric cars can be clearly seen. Chapter 11 provides more details of this report. 4.1.3 fossil fuel assessment report As part of the Energy [R]evolution scenario, Greenpeace also commissioned the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik Institute in Munich, Germany to research a new fossil fuel resources assessment taking into account planned and ongoing investments in coal, gas and oil on a global and regional basis (see fossil fuel pathway Chapter 7). 4.1.4 status and future projections for renewable heating technologies EREC and the DLR undertook a detailed research about the current renewable heating technology markets, market forecasts, cost projections and state of the technology development.The cost projection (see section 4.9) as well as the technology option (see Chapter 9) have been used as an input information for this new Energy [R]evolution scenario. references 47 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK’, GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, 2007, 2008 AND 2010. 48 TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN 1990 BASED ON WEO 2011. 4 57 © THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD scenarios for a future energy supply | MAIN SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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