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4.3 population development Future population development is an important factor in energy scenario building because population size affects the size and composition of energy demand, directly and through its impact on economic growth and development. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 uses the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projections for population development. For this study the most recent population projections from UNDP up to 2050 are applied53, in addition, the current national population projection is used for China (see Table 4.2). Based on UNDP’s 2010 assessment, the world’s population is expected to grow by 0.76 % on average over the period 2007 to 2050, from 6.8 billion people in 2009 to nearly 9.3 billion by 2050. The rate of population growth will slow over the projection period, from 1.1% per year during 2009-2020 to 0.5% per year during 2040-2050.The updated projections show an increase in population estimates by 2050 of around 150 million compared to the UNDP 2008 edition. This will slightly increase the demand for energy. From a regional perspective,the population of the developing regions will continue to grow most rapidly.The Eastern Europe/Eurasia will face a continuous decline, followed after a short while by the OECD Asia Oceania.The population in OECD Europe and OECD North America are expected to increase through 2050.The share of the population living in today’s non-OECD countries will increase from the current 82% to 85% in 2050. China’s contribution to world population will drop from 20% today to 14% in 2050. Africa will remain the region with the highest growth rate, leading to a share of 24% of world population in 2050. Satisfying the energy needs of a growing population in the developing regions of the world in an environmentally friendly manner is the fundamental challenge to achieve a global sustainable energy supply. table 4.2: population development projections (IN MILLIONS) image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS AT THE BAREFOOT COLLEGE.THE COLLEGE SPECIALISES IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES A SPACE WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD CAN LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE STUDENTS TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVE THEIR VILLAGES CLEAN ENERGY. 4.4 economic growth Economic growth is a key driver for energy demand. Since 1971, each 1% increase in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been accompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energy consumption.The decoupling of energy demand and GDP growth is therefore a prerequisite for an Energy [R]evolution. Most global energy/economic/environmental models constructed in the past have relied on market exchange rates to place countries in a common currency for estimation and calibration.This approach has been the subject of considerable discussion in recent years, and an alternative has been proposed in the form of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Purchasing power parities compare the costs in different currencies of a fixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and services and yield a widely- based measure of the standard of living.This is important in analysing the main drivers of energy demand or for comparing energy intensities among countries. Although PPP assessments are still relatively imprecise compared to statistics based on national income and product trade and national price indexes, they are considered to provide a better basis for global scenario development.54 Thus all data on economic development in WEO 2011 refers to purchasing power adjusted GDP. However, as WEO 2011 only covers the time period up to 2035, the projections for 2035-2050 for the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on our own estimates. Furthermore, estimates of Africa’s GDP development have been adjusted upward compared to WEO 2011. Prospects for GDP growth have decreased considerably since the previous study, due to the financial crisis at the beginning of 2009, although underlying growth trends continue much the same. GDP growth in all regions is expected to slow gradually over the coming decades. World GDP is assumed to grow on average by 3.8% per year over the period 2009-2030, compared to 3.1% from 1971 to 2007, and on average by 3.1% per year over the entire modelling period (2009-2011). China and India are expected to grow faster than other regions, followed by the Middle East, Africa, remaining Non OECD Asia, and Eastern Europe/Eurasia.The Chinese economy will slow as it becomes more mature, but will nonetheless become the largest in the world in PPP terms early in the 2020s. GDP in OECD Europe and OECD Asia Oceania is assumed to grow by around 1.6 and 1.3% per year over the projection period, while economic growth in OECD North America is expected to be slightly higher.The OECD share of global PPP-adjusted GDP will decrease from 56% in 2009 to 33% in 2050. references 53 ‘WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: THE 2010 REVISION (MEDIUM VARIANT)’, UNITED NATIONS, POPULATION DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS (UNDP), 2011. 54 NORDHAUS, W, ‘ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF OUTPUT IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: PURCHASING POWER PARITY OR MARKET EXCHANGE RATES?’, REPORT PREPARED FOR IPCC EXPERT MEETING ON EMISSION SCENARIOS, US-EPA WASHINGTON DC, JANUARY 12-14, 2005. 4 REGION 2009 2040 2050 8,978 9,469 599 600 571 595 199 193 331 324 1,627 1,692 1,474 1,468 1,392 1,445 589 603 1,870 2,192 326 358 World 6,818 India China NonOECD Asia 1,208 1,342 1,046 1,308 1,387 1,377 1,407 1,128 1,194 499 522 1.045 1,278 229 250 2015 2020 7,284 7,668 555 570 579 458 484 504 201 204 205 339 340 341 2025 2030 8,036 8,372 587 593 524 541 205 204 340 337 1,459 1,523 1,436 1,452 1,254 1,307 544 562 1,417 1,562 270 289 OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Asia Oceania Eastern Europe/ Eurasia Latin 468 America Africa Middle East 999 203 source UN WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS - 2010 REVISION, MEDIUM VARIANT, AND NATIONAL POPULATION SCENARIO FOR CHINA. 59 © GP/EMMA STONER scenarios for a future energy supply | OIL AND GAS PRICE PROJECTSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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