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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK table 4.3: gdp development projections (AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES) 4.5 oil and gas price projections The recent dramatic fluctuations in global oil prices have resulted in slightly higher forward price projections for fossil fuels. Under the 2004 ‘high oil and gas price’ scenario from the European Commission, for example, an oil price of just $ 34 per barrel was assumed in 2030. More recent projections of oil prices by 2035 in the IEA’s WEO 2011 range from $2010 97/bbl in the 450 ppm scenario up to $2010 140/bbl in current policies scenario. Since the first Energy [R]evolution study was published in 2007, however, the actual price of oil has moved over $ 100/bbl for the first time, and in July 2008 reached a record high of more than $ 140/bbl. Although oil prices fell back to $ 100/bbl in September 2008 and around $ 80/bbl in April 2010, prices have increased to more than $ 110/bbl in early 2012. Thus, the projections in the IEA Current Policies scenario might still be considered too conservative.Taking into account the growing global demand for oil we have assumed a price development path for fossil fuels slightly higher than the IEA WEO 2011 “Current Policies” case extrapolated forward to 2050 (see Table 4.4). As the supply of natural gas is limited by the availability of pipeline infrastructure, there is no world market price for gas. In most regions of the world the gas price is directly tied to the price of oil. Gas prices are therefore assumed to increase to $24-30/GJ by 2050. REGION 2009-2020 2020-2035 2035-2050 2009-2050 4 World OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Eastern Europe/ Eurasia India China Non OECD Asia Latin America Middle East Africa 4.2% 3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 1.9% 3.0% 7.6% 5.8% 3.1% 5.3% 8.2% 4.2% 2.7% 4.7% 5.2% 3.2% 2.6% 3.5% 4.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 4.3% 3.7% 2.8% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% source 2009-2035: IEA WEO 2011 AND 2035-2050: DLR, PERSONAL COMMUNICATION (2012) table 4.4: development projections for fossil fuel and biomass prices in $ 2010 FOSSIL FUEL UNIT Crude oil imports Historic prices (from WEO) barrel WEO “450 ppm scenario” barrel WEO Current policies barrel Energy [R]evolution 2012 barrel Natural gas imports Historic prices (from WEO) United States GJ Europe GJ Japan LNG GJ WEO 2011 “450 ppm scenario” United States GJ Europe GJ Japan LNG GJ WEO 2011 Current policies United States GJ Europe GJ Japan LNG GJ Energy [R]evolution 2012 United States GJ Europe GJ Japan LNG GJ OECD steam coal imports Historic prices (from WEO) tonne WEO 2011 “450 ppm scenario” tonne WEO 2011 Current policies tonne Energy [R]evolution 2012 tonne Biomass (solid) Energy [R]evolution 2012 OECD Europe GJ OECD Asia Oceania & North America GJ Other regions GJ source IEA WEO 2009 & 2011 own assumptions. 60 2000 35 5.07 3.75 6.18 2005 2007 51 76 2.35 3.28 4.55 6.37 4.58 6.41 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 97 97 135 140 152 152 8.85 8.23 10.23 9.92 12.77 12.77 8.85 9.50 13.29 13.72 15.61 16.04 14.57 16.45 19.54 20.91 22.12 23.62 74 68 116 118 171.0 181.3 10.13 10.28 4.36 4.56 4.05 4.36 2040 152 2050 152 42 50 70 7.50 3.34 2.74 98 78 78 78 78 4.64 7.91 11.61 4.64 7.91 11.61 4.64 7.91 11.61 4.64 7.91 11.61 122 99 99 99 7.80 3.44 2.84 97 97 97 106 106 106 112 112 112 6.22 6.86 8.44 9.92 10.34 10.34 12.56 12.66 12.66 6.44 7.39 8.12 10.34 11.61 12.56 13.40 14.24 14.98 8.49 10.84 12.56 14.22 16.78 18.22 16.22 19.08 20.63 100 93 83 105 109 113 126.7 139 162.3 8.31 9.32 9.72 3.55 3.85 4.10 3.24 3.55 3.80 18.34 22.29 25.12 199.0 10.43 4.76 4.66 24.04 26.37 29.77 206.3 10.64 5.27 4.96 scenarios for a future energy supply | COST OF CO2 EMISSIONS, COST PROJECTIONS FOR EFFICIENT FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION AND CCSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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