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4.6 cost of CO2 emissions Assuming that a carbon emissions trading system is established across all world regions in the longer term, the cost of CO2 allowances needs to be included in the calculation of electricity generation costs. Projections of emissions costs are even more uncertain than energy prices, and a broad range of future estimates has been made in studies.The CO2 costs assumed in 2050 are often higher than those included in this Energy [R]evolution study (75 $2010/tCO2)55, reflecting estimates of the total external costs of CO2 emissions.The CO2 cost estimates in the 2010 version of Energy [R]evolution were rather conservative (50 $2008/t). CO2 costs are applied in Kyoto Protocol Non-Annex B countries only from 2030 on. table 4.5: assumptions on CO2 emissions cost development for Annex-B and Non-Annex-B countries of the UNFCCC. ($2000/tCO2) image SATELLITE IMAGE OF JAPAN’S DAI ICHI POWER PLANT SHOWING DAMAGE AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF 2011. 4.7 cost projections for efficient fossil fuel generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) Further cost reduction potentials are assumed for fuel power technologies in use today for coal, gas, lignite and oil. Because they are at an advanced stage of market development the potential for cost reductions is limited, and will be achieved mainly through an increase in efficiency.56 There is much speculation about the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) to mitigate the effect of fossil fuel consumption on climate change, even though the technology is still under development. CCS means trapping CO2 from fossil fuels, either before or after they are burned, and ‘storing’ (effectively disposing of) it in the sea or beneath the surface of the earth.There are currently three different methods of capturing CO2: ‘pre-combustion’, ‘post- combustion’ and ‘oxyfuel combustion’. However, development is at a very early stage and CCS will not be implemented - in the best case - before 2020 and will probably not become commercially viable as a possible effective mitigation option until 2030. Cost estimates for CCS vary considerably, depending on factors such as power station configuration, technology, fuel costs, size of project and location. One thing is certain, however: CCS is expensive. It requires significant funds to construct the power stations and the necessary infrastructure to transport and store carbon.The IPCC special report on CCS assesses costs at $15-75 per ton of captured CO257, while a 2007 US Department of Energy report found installing carbon capture systems to most modern plants resulted in a near doubling of costs.58 These costs are estimated to increase the price of electricity in a range from 21-91%.59 4 COUNTRIES Annex-B countries Non-Annex-B countries 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 0 15 25 40 0 0 40 55 75 55 75 table 4.6: development of efficiency and investment costs for selected new power plant technologies POWER PLANT Coal-fired condensing power plant Lignite-fired condensing power plant Natural gas combined cycle Max. efficiency (%) Investment costs ($2010/kW) CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) Max. efficiency (%) Investment costs ($2010/kW) CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) Max. efficiency (%) Investment costs ($2010/kW) CO2 emissions a)(g/kWh) 2009 2015 2020 45 46 48 1,436 1,384 1,363 744 728 697 41 43 44 1,693 1,614 1,578 975 929 908 57 59 61 777 754 736 354 342 330 2030 2040 2050 50 52 53 1,330 1,295 1,262 670 644 632 44,5 45 45 1,545 1,511 1,478 source WEO 2010, DLR 2010 a)CO2 emissions refer to power station outputs only; life-cycle emissions are not considered. references 55 KREWITT, W., SCHLOMANN, B., EXTERNAL COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE ENERGIES COMPARED TO ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES, GERMAN FEDERAL MINISTRY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, NATURE CONSERVATION AND NUCLEAR SAFETY, BERLIN 2006. 56 GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL BRIEFING: CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE’, GOERNE, 2007. 57 ABANADES, J C ET AL., 2005, PG 10. 58 NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORIES, 2007. 59 RUBIN ET AL., 2005A, PG 40. 898 888 62 63 701 666 325 320 888 64 631 315 61 © DIGITAL GLOBE scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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