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4.8.1 photovoltaics (PV) The worldwide photovoltaics (PV) market has been growing at over 40% per annum in recent years and the contribution is starting to make a significant contribution to electricity generation. Photovoltaics are important because of their decentralised/ centralised character, its flexibility for use in an urban environment and huge potential for cost reduction.The PV industry has been increasingly exploiting this potential during the last few years, with installation prices more than halving in the last few years. Current development is focused on improving existing modules and system components by increasing their energy efficiency and reducing material usage.Technologies like PV thin film (using alternative semiconductor materials) or dye sensitive solar cells are developing quickly and present a huge potential for cost reduction. The mature technology crystalline silicon, with a proven lifetime of 30 years, is continually increasing its cell and module efficiency (by 0.5% annually), whereas the cell thickness is rapidly decreasing (from 230 to 180 microns over the last five years). Commercial module efficiency varies from 14 to 21%, depending on silicon quality and fabrication process. The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant over the last 30 years with costs reducing by 20% each time the installed capacity doubles, indicating a high rate of technical learning. Assuming a globally installed capacity of about 1,500 GW between 2030 and 2040 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario with an electricity output of 2,600 TWh/a, generation costs of around $ 5-10 cents/kWh (depending on the region) will be achieved. During the following five to ten years, PV will become competitive with retail electricity prices in many parts of the world, and competitive with fossil fuel costs around 2030. Cost data applied in this study is shown in Table 4.7. In the long term, additional costs for the integration into the power supply system of up to 25% of PV investment have been taken into account (estimation for local batteries and load and generation management measures). table 4.7: photovoltaics (PV) cost assumptions INCLUDING ADDITIONAL COSTS FOR GRID INTEGRATION OF UP TO 25% OF PV INVESTMENT image AN EXCAVATOR DIGS A HOLE AT GUAZHOU WIND FARM CONSTRUCTION SITE, CHINA, WHERE IT IS PLANNED TO BUILD 134 WINDMILLS. 4.8.2 concentrating solar power (CSP) Solar thermal ‘concentrating’ power stations (CSP) can only use direct sunlight and are therefore dependent on very sunny locations. North Africa, for example, has a technical potential for this technology which far exceeds regional demand.The various 4 solar thermal technologies (detailed in Chapter 9) have good prospects for further development and cost reductions. Because of their more simple design, ‘Fresnel’ collectors are considered as an option for additional cost trimming.The efficiency of central receiver systems can be increased by producing compressed air at a temperature of up to 1,000°C, which is then used to run a combined gas and steam turbine. Thermal storage systems are a way for CSP electricity generators to reduce costs. The Spanish Andasol 1 plant, for example, is equipped with molten salt storage with a capacity of 7.5 hours. A higher level of full load operation can be realised by using a thermal storage system and a large collector field. Although this leads to higher investment costs, it reduces the cost of electricity generation. Depending on the level of irradiation and mode of operation, it is expected that long term future electricity generation costs of $ 6-10 cents/kWh can be achieved.This presupposes rapid market introduction in the next few years. CSP investment costs assumed for this study and shown in Table 4.8 include costs for an increasing storage capacity up to 12 hours per day and additional solar fields up to solar multiple 3, achieving a maximum of 6,500 full load hours per year. table 4.8: concentrating solar power (CSP) cost assumptions INCLUDING COSTS FOR HEAT STORAGE AND ADDITIONAL SOLAR FIELDS SCENARIO E[R] Investment costs ($/kWp) O&Mcosts$/(kW∙a) O & M = Operation and maintenance. 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 3,000 2,300 1,650 1,280 1,040 1,060 43 38 21 15 14 15 SCENARIO E[R] Investment costs ($/kWp) O&Mcosts$/(kW∙a) O & M = Operation and maintenance. 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 9,300 8,100 6,600 5,750 5,300 4,800 420 330 265 229 211 193 63 © GP/MARKEL REDONDO scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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