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4.8.5 geothermal Geothermal energy has long been used worldwide for supplying heat, and since the beginning of the last century for electricity generation. Geothermally generated electricity was previously limited to sites with specific geological conditions, but further intensive research and development work widened potential sites. In particular the creation of large underground heat exchange surfaces - Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) - and the improvement of low temperature power conversion, for example with the Organic Rankine Cycle, could make it possible to produce geothermal electricity anywhere. Advanced heat and power cogeneration plants will also improve the economics of geothermal electricity. A large part of the costs for a geothermal power plant come from deep underground drilling, so further development of innovative drilling technology is expected. Assuming a global average market growth for geothermal power capacity of 15% per year up to 2020, adjusting to 12% up to 2030 and still 7% per year beyond 2030, the result would be a cost reduction potential of more than 60% by 2050: • for conventional geothermal power (without heat credits), from $ 15 cents/kWh to about $ 9 cents/kWh; • for EGS, despite the presently high figures (about $ 20-30 cents/kWh), electricity production costs - depending on the credits for heat supply - are expected to come down to around $ 8 cents/kWh in the long term. Because of its non-fluctuating supply and a grid load operating almost 100% of the time, geothermal energy is considered to be a key element in a future supply structure based on renewable sources. Up to now we have only used a marginal part of the potential. Shallow geothermal drilling, for example, can deliver energy for heating and cooling at any time anywhere, and can be used for thermal energy storage. table 4.11: geothermal cost assumptions image ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION IS EUROPE’S FIRST COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. IT WILL SUPPLY UP TO 200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT. 4.8.6 ocean energy Ocean energy, particularly offshore wave energy, is a significant resource and has the potential to satisfy an important percentage of electricity supply worldwide. Globally, the potential of ocean energy has been estimated at around 90,000 TWh/year. The most significant advantages are the vast availability and high predictability of the resource and a technology with very low visual impact and no CO2 emissions. Many different concepts and devices have been developed, including taking energy from the tides, waves, currents and both thermal and saline gradient resources. Many of these are in an advanced phase of research and development, large scale prototypes have been deployed in real sea conditions and some have reached pre-market deployment. There are a few grid connected, fully operational commercial wave and tidal generating plants. The cost of energy from initial tidal and wave energy farms has been estimated to be in the range of $ 25-95 cents/kWh66, and for initial tidal stream farms in the range of $ 14-28 cents/kWh. Generation costs of $ 8-10 cents/kWh are expected by 2030. Key areas for development will include concept design, optimisation of the device configuration, reduction of capital costs by exploring the use of alternative structural materials, economies of scale and learning from operation. According to the latest research findings, the learning factor is estimated to be 10-15% for offshore wave and 5-10% for tidal stream. In the long term, ocean energy has the potential to become one of the most competitive and cost effective forms of generation. In the next few years a dynamic market penetration is expected, following a similar curve to wind energy. Because of the early development stage any future cost estimates for ocean energy systems are uncertain. Present cost estimates are based on analysis from the European NEEDS project.67 table 4.12: ocean energy cost assumptions 4 SCENARIO E[R] Geothermal power plant Investment costs ($/kWp) 13,500 11,100 9,300 6,400 5,300 4,550 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 SCENARIO E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 5,900 4,650 3,300 2,300 1,900 1,700 237 185 132 91 77 68 O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a) O & M = Operation and maintenance. 637 538 418 318 297 281 Geothermal power plant Investment costs ($/kWp) O & M costs $/(kW ∙ a) O & M = Operation and maintenance. references 66 G.J. DALTON, T. LEWIS (2011): PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF 5 WAVE ENERGY DEVICES OFF THE WEST COAST OF IRELAND; EWTEC 2011. 67 WWW.NEEDS-PROJECT.ORG. 65 © GP/MARKEL REDONDO scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIESPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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