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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 4.8.7 hydro power Hydropower is a mature technology with a significant part of its global resource already exploited.There is still, however, some potential left both for new schemes (especially small scale run-of-river projects with 4 little or no reservoir impoundment) and for repowering of existing sites. There is likely to be some more potential for hydropower with the increasing need for flood control and the maintenance of water supply during dry periods. Sustainable hydropower makes an effort to integrate plants with river ecosystems while reconciling ecology with economically attractive power generation. table 4.13: hydro power cost assumptions 4.8.8 summary of renewable energy cost development Figure 4.2 summarises the cost trends for renewable power technologies derived from the respective learning curves. It is important to note that the expected cost reduction is not a function of time, but of cumulative capacity (production of units), so dynamic market developments are required. Most of the technologies will be able to reduce their specific investment costs to between 30% and 60% of current levels once they have achieved full maturity (after 2040). Reduced investment costs for renewable energy technologies lead directly to reduced electricity generation costs, as shown in Figure 4.3. Generation costs in 2009 were around $ 8 to 35 cents/kWh for the most important technologies, with the exception of photovoltaic. In the long term, costs are expected to converge at around $ 6 to 12 cents/kWh (examples for OECD Europe).These estimates depend on site-specific conditions such as the local wind regime or solar irradiation, the availability of biomass at reasonable prices or the credit granted for heat supply in the case of combined heat and power generation. figure 4.3: expected development of electricity generation costs from fossil fuel and renewable options EXAMPLE FOR OECD EUROPE SCENARIO E[R] Investment costs ($/kWp) O&Mcosts$/(kW∙a) O & M = Operation and maintenance. 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,900 132 136 141 146 152 156 figure 4.2: future development of investment costs for renewable energy technologies (NORMALISED TO 2010 COST LEVELS) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 $ ct/kWh 0 66 2009 •PV • WIND TURBINE ONSHORE • WIND TURBINE OFFSHORE • BIOMASS POWER PLANT • BIOMASS CHP • GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT • SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT 2015 2020 2030 2040 (CSP) 2050 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 •PV • WIND TURBINE ONSHORE • WIND TURBINE OFFSHORE • BIOMASS CHP • GEOTHERMAL (WITH HEAT CREDITS) • SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT (CSP) • OCEAN ENERGY POWER PLANT OCEAN ENERGY POWER PLANT % of 2009 cost scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING TECHNOLOGIESPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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