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4.9 cost projections for renewable heating technologies Renewable heating has the longest tradition of all renewable technologies. In a joint survey EREC and DLR carried out a survey on renewable heating technologies in Europe (see also technology chapter 9).The report analyses installation costs of renewable heating technologies, ranging from direct solar collector systems to geothermal and ambient heat applications and biomass technologies. Some technologies are already mature and compete on the market – especially simple heating systems in the domestic sector. However, more sophisticated technologies, which can provide higher shares of heat demand from renewable sources, are still under development. Costs of different technologies show quite a large range depending not only on the maturity of the technology but also on the complexity of the system as well as the local conditions. Market barriers slow down the further implementation and cost reduction of renewable heating systems, especially for heating networks. Nevertheless, significant learning rates can be expected if renewable heating is increasingly implemented as projected in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. 4.9.1 solar thermal technologies Solar collectors depend on direct solar irradiation, so the yield strongly depends on the location. In very sunny regions even very simple collectors can provide hot water to households at very low cost. In Europe, thermosiphon systems can provide total hot water demand in households at around 400 €/m2 installation costs. In regions with less sun, where additional space heating is needed, installation cost for pumped systems are twice as high. In these areas, economies of scales can decrease solar heating costs significantly. Large scale solar collector system are known from 250-600 €/m2, depending on the share of solar energy in the whole heating system and the level of storage required. While those cost assumptions were transferred to all OECD Regions and the Eastern European Economies, a lower cost level for households was assumed in very sunny or developing regions. 4.9.2 deep geothermal applications (Deep) geothermal heat from aquifers or reservoirs can be used directly in hydrothermal heating plants to supply heat demand close to the plant or in a district heating network for several different types of heat (see Chapter 8). Due to the high drilling costs deep geothermal energy is mostly feasibly for large applications in combination with heat networks. It is already economic feasible and has been in use for a long time, where aquifers can be found near the surface, e.g. in the Pacific Island or along the Pacific ring of fire. Also in Europe deep geothermal applications are being developed for heating purposes at investment costs from 500€/kWth (shallow) to 3000 €/kWth (deep), with the costs strongly dependent on the drilling depth. As deep geothermal systems require a high technology level, European cost assumptions were transferred to all regions worldwide. image A SATELLITE IMAGE OF EYJAFJALLAJOKULL VOLCANO ERUPTION, ICELAND, 2010. 4.9.3 heat pumps Heat pumps typically provide hot water or space heat for heating systems with relatively low supply temperature or can serve as a supplement to other heating technologies.They have become increasingly popular for underfloor heating in buildings in Europe. Economies of scale are less important than for deep geothermal, so there is focus on small household applications with investment costs in Europe ranging from 500-1,600 €/kW for ground water systems and from 1,200-3,000 €/kW for ground source or aerothermal systems. 4.9.4 biomass applications There is broad portfolio of modern technologies for heat production from biomass, ranging from small scale single room stoves to heating or CHP-plants in MW scale. Investments costs in Europe show a similar variety: simple log wood stoves can be obtained from 100 €/kW, more sophisticated automated heating systems that cover the whole heat demand of a building are significantly more expensive. Log wood or pellet boilers range from 400-1200 €/kW, with large applications being cheaper than small systems. Considering the possible applications of this wide range of technologies especially in the household sector, higher investment costs were assumed for hightech regions of the OECD, the Eastern European Economies and Middle East. Sunny regions with low space heat demand as well as developing regions are covered with very low investment costs. Economy of scales apply to heating plants above 500kW, with investment cost between 400-700 €/kW. Heating plants can deliver process heat or provide whole neighbourhoods with heat. Even if heat networks demand additional investment, there is great potential to use solid biomass for heat generation in both small and large heating centres linked to local heating networks. Cost reductions expected vary strongly within each technology sector, depending on the maturity of a specific technology. E.g. Small wood stoves will not see significant cost reductions, while there is still learning potential for automated pellet heating systems. Cost for simple solar collectors for swimming pools might be already optimised, whereas integration in large systems is neither technological nor economical mature.Table 4.14 shows average development pathways for a variety of heat technology options. table 4.14: overview over expected investment costs pathways for heating technologies IN $/KW 4 Geothermal distict heating* Heat pumps Low tech solar collectors Small solar collector systems Large solar collector systems Solar district heating* Low tech biomass stoves Biomass heating systems Biomass district heating* 2015 2020 2,650 2,520 1,990 1,930 140 140 1,170 1,120 950 910 1,080 1,030 130 130 930 900 660 640 2030 2040 2050 2,250 2,000 1,760 1,810 1,710 1,600 140 140 140 1,010 890 750 810 720 610 920 820 690 130 130 130 850 800 750 600 570 530 * WITHOUT NETWORK 67 © DIGITAL GLOBE scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE HEATING AND COOLING TECHNOLOGIESPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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